07-01-2012 12:28 PM
About time we move to the "passing game". The way the forecasts look, there will be a whole lot of Tebowing for rain. For the record as a bull, I`m more than satisfied with prices right where they are now, they don`t have to go up anymore, I just hope everyone can catch rains to hold the crop that we have. The cream is already off in too many places.
07-01-2012 03:30 PM
Actually seem to be some subtle changes suggested in the long range weather maps- some monsoonal moisture finally starting to push out of the SW and the high tending to move back west a bit in the 8-14.
I'll let the mets give their take but I'm thinking that it is 1) not a crop saving shift but 2) there may be some rains around and slightly cooler conditions. Not sure how the market will deal with it.
A lot different in some ways but in July and August '95 it was chronically hot but there was rain around here and there all the time- not enough to really help a lot of places but enough to keep the market from really taking off until the final tally
07-01-2012 04:14 PM
Now Knox, 8 - 14 days out will be meaningless for the corn crop. jmho.
Our turn to get zero today. Good friend drove from NW-IA to St Louis,
reports it is the poorest looking corn crop he has ever seen. Just not
one area of great corn the whole way which is very unusual. Also,
miles of 5' tall corn tasseling.
07-01-2012 04:49 PM
I might have picked a couple of other words.
You know that nice corn smell when you put fresh corn in the pot to boil? That's what my corn field by the house smelled like yesterday evening while I was mowing what's left of the grass next to the cornfield.
In this area, very dry and very hot. I'd say 90% of the corn is silked, or later. Not looking good. Beans are hanging in there, though not growing much.
Corn yield losses at this point would only be a guess, but the top end potential is obviously gone. Based on the forecast of another week like the past week -- and no rains for at least another week -- preparing myself for corn yield down 50% or worse. Based on the size of the areas in similar situations, even if corn is not so far along, a final national yield of 150 or more would be quite a challenge.
Are the traders ready for new conditions ratings, and a sub-140 yield?
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