funny you should mention that, getting ready to uncover the boat and take the kids tubing.
as for the corn crop, it isn't there. Good but not record. 12.8B takes all the cushion in the carry away.
i know i know, the market doesn't care today. its trading like it did pre 2007 when complacency of too much was the mood.
there is very little downside risk in corn at this point, and probably $2-$3 in upside potential, with a historic weather event adding another $1-$2.
looking out to 2015 acres in NA and SA, they will suffer if prices stay this low. margins are too thin, risk is too high, and available capital is an issue in some countries.
so we trim acres in SA and NA next year, and have a hiccup in weather (keep in mind weather hiccups happen all the time) and we are all of a sudden have a big problem
I have 25 months to figure out what to do with a 2014 corn crop I haven't harvested yet. think about that one. last 7 years have been very good, so I guess if I have to eat crow for one year, so be it, but i don't think I have to worry about that. just need to let things simmer and rise to the top. remember in 2013 we were suppose to blow things out, yet carryout is going to end close to 1B instead of 2B and you had lots of chances to move corn with a $5 and $6, as recently as May.
I will worry about my 2014 corn crop once its in the bin.
as for soya, don't think the crop is there either, BUT acres will have to slide some place if corn doesn't get them. wheat will get some, milo too. but soya will likely keep getting the lions share. IMO if you wanna be a bear, one needs to pay attention in this pit. I have mentioned more than once I do have some 2014 soya bushels sold (combo of paper and physical) near $13. at the time I wish I had more, but given our local basis, and the lackluster soya crop coming I am now thinking we could make a run that will challenge those hedges. At which time I will likely move more and even start looking to 2015 and 2016.