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07-26-2011 11:57 PM - edited 07-27-2011 12:01 AM
.... is my guess unless widespread heat relief and rain. The calls for yield trends for corn seem to be headed down in condition surveys and reports of pollination problems. It could be reversed for the better, but the longer the trend for continued stress the more likely final yield numbers will get hammered. I do believe we are in the danger zone for yield outcomes for corn in N America.
Continuation and it will hit the fan. Heading towards 150 bu/ac is too low to not worry users.
Remember, as far as I know China is still looking for feed. Feed wheat from the Aussies has helped them back fill. That won't last forever.
07-27-2011 05:48 AM
The next week or two will be critical for the areas that have missed the recent rains. The corn in Iowa seems to be holding up quite well even in the areas that didn't get the rain. But some is starting to show signs of stress.
I feel that a national yield of 150 or less is a low probability outcome right now. The temps aren't too far from normal and there have been a few good rain events lately. Maybe I'm optomistic, but I think we come in closer to 160 than 150 given normal weather from here on out.
07-27-2011 10:09 AM
Iowastate you wouldn't be saying that if you took a drive around Indiana and Ohio today. I'm afraid Ohio might see an average in the 120s and Indiana isn't much better. I'm hearing great things about your crop in Iowa and am glad you will have both high prices and high yield. If you want to share the wealth I will provide my PO Box number (providing the Post Office doesn't close our branch).
07-27-2011 10:15 AM
Iowastate, I hope you are right. Last year they blamed hot nights for the loss in yield on the good, tiled ground. This year the nights are warmer than last year. How do you figure it produces a different result this year? Not as much N loss?
07-27-2011 01:52 PM
Those hot nights produce shorter kernals...and I'm not sure they take that into account when people start doing yield checks trying to get a handle on the average yield. I'm just going to sit back and ride this one in to the fall...because I'm pretty sure when combines start running, there's going to be an awful lot of surprises out there..and not many of them good.
07-28-2011 05:23 AM
Every year there are people on message boards predicting that the crop is horrible based on what they see in their immediate area. You're not hearing much from NE, IA and SD. The NW corn belt is going to produce some fantastic crops if we keep getting normal weather. Is it enough to offset losses from the Eastern corn belt? Maybe it is time to start plugging in yields by state and seeing what they total up to.
As far as sharing the wealth, I'll send my check to my crop ins co. and they can share the wealth according to need.
07-28-2011 05:36 AM
The heat last year that was blamed for much of the yield loss occurred in Aug. If we have above normal temps in Aug of '11, I would agree that it would likely produce similar results. Those late planted crops are even more dependent upon Aug weather.
The crops that I have seen in So. IA look really good this year. I don't know if So IA is capable of pulling up the average for the state but it sure isn't going to pull it down much either.
07-28-2011 09:25 AM
china's demand inches up daily, there is no drastic change.
thye grow a lot and import a moidest %.
world trade takes place daily, neither bullish nor bearisr.
the MKT knows corn yield is lost, not new, from here what happens?
of course matters, gain back 3 or lose 5 ?
price is already 7, refleing XXXXXXX