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4 weeks ago
anybody ever track the stocks numbers versus production from the USDA Reports?
The march 1 usda stocks numbers I have seen reported in the last few days in charts comparing current year to previous years, back as far as 30 years....... Which got begged the question??? 1987 is the only other year when the report on mar 1 said over 8 bln bu on hand in the last 30 years.
My first reaction was wow our 15 billion bu crop is nearly half gone. More than half if we allow for some carry. But presented as a comparison to 30 years the presenters were presenting it as a big stocks number, but in relation to production our March 1 stocks number at 8.5 bln bu is only 53% of our record harvest and available carry. That means in 4 months after our harvest we have used up nearly 8 billion bushels of corn. So If the harvest was 15 bln bu, we are on a pace to use 24 bilion bushel so we will probably chew slower this summer.
But consider in 1987 the March 1 stocks number for corn was 8 billion bu following a corn crop that was 7 billion bushel the prevous fall. So that is a stocks number of 117% of harvest production 4 months later...... now that is what I call carry... not this little 50 day stuff we are told is causing record basis losses.
Statistics don't always grant credibility if you examine the cherry picking process.
They are somewhat like art.... Sometimes the artist is so good at statistics that you can see exactly what is being said like a Rockwell, and other times the art is totally up to the viewer to see what is or isn't there.
It is a complicated world and hard to present it in a graph.
4 weeks ago
One of my problems with long range statistics is that things have changed so much. Since 1987 we have added ethanol, more exports and Brazil is now growing a meaningful sized crop of corn.
It seems to me that these long term statistics are almost always apples and oranges.