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Advisor
Posts: 3,952
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Mark My Words

I have a grain analyst source that said what I believe to be the statement of this year's corn crop. He made the statement, this morning. I say mark these words, you will see this play out this fall.

 

"Big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller" could be true again this year. Overall we still think the corn crop is still getting smaller but it will take some actual yield data to get the corn prices to react in a positive way."

 

What say you?

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,185
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Mark My Words

[ Edited ]

Depends, are we talking about the real crops, or the USDA crops?

 

And don't forget -- plant in the dust, your bins will bust -- rain makes grain -- etc.

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Mark My Words

Don`t they say that North Dakota has more corn acres than previous playas such as Ohio?  Well, we`ve heard some of that corn failed and was mowed? So, that might take zeros off the table while lowering acres a little....but by taking zeros off it raises the yield a bit.  Even though acres were reported to FSA a month ago, I don`t think USDA is using those numbers in their guesses yet, in this day and age, has FSA reporting is made, we should be able to see the reporting of actual acres in real time.

 

I think corn that was 220 last year will be 180 in many "good areas" this year, so off 40 (not in all good areas...but)  So, off 20% ...let`s say 10% over all to give bears strong benefit of doubt 10% off of the 170 trend yield, you`re talking in the high 150`s.  Let`s say "160" well the crop is being traded in the 166 area, so there could be surprises.

 

 

The "Poor Farmer crop tour" is going to be watched closer than ever this year.   I predict when Chip and the boys are talking it over with Tyne Morgan, if you take a drink everytime the word "variable" will be used, you`ll be 3 sheets to the wind in 10 minutes...they will have to come up with new adjectives for the word variable   Smiley Happy

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,443
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Mark My Words

Ding , Ding , Ding - we have a winner - I read a few days ago that FC Stone has the corn at 162 and change - That's a big difference than the 170 + B.S. we have been reading .

 

Unforma comes out pretty soon with there's - That will be interesting - as they tend to be with the USDA .

 

WCMO - If rain makes grain then Indiana should make 645 bpa this year !  lol

Senior Contributor
Posts: 264
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Mark My Words

Good source does know that regardless of yields there will be an alternative variable to make traders go the other way for profit. Exports, politics, or next years record crop. Happens no matter what nowadays whatever it takes to scalp a quick buck from the American farmer at the expense of the American farmers.
Senior Contributor
Posts: 264
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Mark My Words

Right good point we're at 156 on the corn here and 35 on the soybeans it's quite amazing the number fluctuations I've been hearing and seeing. However all lower than what we've heard and traded all season this market is an upside down joke, ashamed to have any part in it.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,185
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Mark My Words

[ Edited ]

Yep, my yield doubled just last week!  ]

 

AND, if the forecast holds, might just double again this weekend!  

 

[I hope not, don't really need 5-6 more inches of rain on Saturday, just experienced what 7.5 inches can do a week ago Wednesday.]

Advisor
Posts: 3,952
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Mark My Words

Informa U.S. Yield Estimates released August 3, 2017.:

 

Corn= 165.9

 

Soybeans=  47.3

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,481
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Mark My Words

[ Edited ]

folks, there is a problem in the commodity market........when the price world wide is set from one location, and it is all electronic

nobody is around but churping crickets, and a room full of monitors, and things going the speed of light, and nobody knows

who is even trading or from what corner of the world a buy or sell order is issued from, plus all of the fake bids and the like

going on, and programs set up to make a couple of cents and get out, maybe several times a day, and not just one

or two trades like that, but many......and how "new products" are introduced all the time, they now are adding an aussie wheat

contract......

frankly that's too much power concentrated in one place.

and factor in that cme is adveristing in all the major financial papers on how their products are "investments".....note the name

market is now missing.........

the question is, why don't they let commodities rise.....it's no skin off of their nose....and if you look, the commericals, which

used to be the end users, their numbers are lower......and now many use the "just in time" idea of inventory.....a flood

or blizzard throws a kink in that system.

many companys, don't even hedge on the board....I know of two large milling/baking companys that do not hedge....two

reasons, you want to be the fellow that stuck you head out and be wrong.......second, their profit margins are so good, that

the cost of wheat, is the smallest cost to the product, and it could go up 50% and have little if any impact.

we seems we keep talking globel market......that is really something that someone made up......the variables of prices are huge

over the globe.....so how can Chicago, in just one place determine the price for something throughout the world ?

just ponder on that for a while.

 

sadly, enough smoke and mirrors were used to change the CME from a system where you could buy a seat there ((and thusly be

in on the inside stuff)).....to a stock system, where the largest share holder is not even in the USA....then did away with open

outcry........to now advertising in the financial papers, and inventing new contracts that cover everything from weather, to the price

of coffee, lumber, organge juice, to grains in other countries...............

 

add some lights and some acts, and dancers, and Los Vagas would have nothing compaired to Chicago.

 

when, you have volumes that trade the crop 10 times over each year.........doesn't that tell you something........

 

then the local elevators and borkers that interact with the producers ((oh I hate that word.....you are just a producer....not a farmer)),

they tell us we don't understand, laugh at us, when we get our check for our grain, we just look at it, and how small it is, and

has to have the inputs taken out.....all the time and effort, and what we invest in time and money, and get so little, in some years

(more and more) that there is nothing left for the farmer, yet, the chemical, seed and grain companys report profits.

we are told we don't understand, that there is plenty of grain in the world, the market is always right........yes, 5 pm comes,

the walk out of the office, in their nice clean shirts, climb into their rather new pickups and cars and drive home to their nice

homes, take weekend off, holidays, someone else pays their health insurance, while at the end of each month we pray to the

lord to help us meet our bills.....

 

I have to laugh, the Chicago crowd talks about the value of a commodity.......for an example corn (or in these parts milo),

they set a price.......and then we are told, well the price is not competitive on the world market.........ok....sure corn might be

bit cheaper somewhere in the world.........but you tell me what the true cost will be to get it right smack in the middle of the

USA to feed a critter taken off of pasture due to a drought ((that Chicago even doubts there is a drought))

 

I will say this, our president bends the truth, says one thing, then recants it the next day, or the press secy does, or just frankly lies.

is he just end result of the way we now operate in the usa now ?  where people will say and do anything to make them come out

on top, and if we need to lie, we lie......case in point, the boy scout speech....and the phone call to mexico on the fence.........

(((and many many more that I will not go into))))

 

have we become so perverse that we now accept that is "normal".........we have in the commodity market.

 

I have run across a website....thebookpatch.com  they will publish your writtings in book form, at a very economical

price, quckly, will do an isdn for you and even have a online bookstore to sell your creation..........

 

this might be a good therapy for some of us........you have a interesting story.....or have a thought you want to get out there....

this is a economical place to do it with.......i'm considering several........you can have a book done color cover, bound, and in

small lots  ((as small as 1 book)) for less than $3.00 in some cases.........

 

i'm considering one with the topic of the commodity market ((or perhaps lack thereof)).

 

yes we have a problem.......if somone tries to tell you elsewise..........their either don't know themselves.....or they are

out to take advantage of you .......

 

it is a skill to stab someone, and watch the pain on their face, take their money, and pull the knife out as evidence, and

watch them stagger away, not only wounded by your knife, but from the hard work and worry they have done.........

.....and feel no remorse.

 

you know, maybe America deserves a president like they have.

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,407
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Mark My Words

Alrighty then........."Make the commodity market great again."