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Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,247
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Market Poised

End users had a nice gift to get coverage at some pretty attractive prices and hopefully are well covered as the normal planting rally gets some legs from cold wet weather. I would expect a run up to challenge fall highs to occur as more bullish news will dominate the news stories until the so-called man on the street feels he needs to buy a few corn/bean contracts to make some money on...which will be right near the top as they are the last to get in. Farmers are in an enviable position with "boots on the ground" seeing what is actually going on and hopefully did not panic and sell on the huge dip.

 

Uncertainty is our friend and makes us money. Have a great day!

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,543
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Market Poised

[ Edited ]

"Poised" would be one term to use.    I prefer "recoiled"........It would give a new meaning to the phrase, "Spring Rally"!  Yes, pun intended.

There are only 29 days left in May.

 

Of course, as the optimum planting window closes, that open flame is getting mighty close to the fuse.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 139
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Market Poised

The more you permabulls try and hype your positions, the more I want to short corn (and beans). The crop gets planted every year. Barring weather problems this summer, we will have a record crop in corn and probably beans. If you have crop to sell, sell it. If you are going to hedge, hedge before it is too late. $4-5 corn is coming this year (in my opinion, of course.)
Senior Contributor
Wind
Posts: 327
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Market Poised

I was starting to see the "light at the end of the tunnel" until my vision was blurred with-----------Snow!!!!  Looks like "snowy day jobs" for the day.  After speaking with a few farmers last evening, we concluded that about 15% of the corn did get planted in "our neck of the woods."  Central IA

I did see some barn swallows flying around for the first yesterday.  Wonder what they are doing today?

 

 

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Market Poised

Vandenplas. Are you a trader who follows lock step with USDA in believing we will raise a "record" corn crop every year? How has that worked out for us the past 3 years? Don't fault us farmers, who have first person knowledge of what is going on in our fields, for being a little concerned about getting this crop planted into so far terrible conditions and maybe expecting the trade to realize 15 bbu isn't coming. To each his own though.
Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 139
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Market Poised

Buckley--you are correct in that you know what is going on in YOUR fields. The USDA has a pretty good track record over the years. They cannot predict the weather any better than you or me. So they go with averages. I would too. I don't have any real love for them, but they are the best we have. A farmer on another site said he farms 2750 acres. And he can get is all planted in 4 days, if he has good weather. I suspect there are a lot of others out there that can do the same. So-----
Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 403
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
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Re: Market Poised

You can tell when a person shorted the market it must have been a rough day last Monday:smileyhappy:. Vandenplas you better be ready to put some more margin money in, cause this market is going higher.
Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
0

Re: Market Poised

Hey guys I know I promised to come back like a cicada and post every 17 yes, but this is too much happening to ignore. It is snowing in the Midwest and flooding in the south. The market shows record low carryout% of use and thinks demand has Been killed because we don't have anything to sell. So where does it leave us? As farmers we take for granted that someone saying they can plant 2500 acres of corn in less than a week is blowing smoke ,or inhaling. He could be custom farmed ? Big planters are fast but if he has more than 2 than he is grossly inefficient and two planters would take a support crew and shift work. Anyway guess what these big planters also need? Dry ground. I have a 16 /31 split liquid fertilizer and it is like pulling an anchor. With fertilizer 25 acres an hour if nothing beeps or stops up. Some of your 36 row guys will find every wet spot in your field.  What is planted? The worse thing for corn germinating is cold water. Melting snow is cold. Farmers will plant bit just won't be on time and it might not be corn.Get ready for 91 million acres planted and preventive plant in Dakotas. Going forward you know what makes cold nights? Snow cover. Freezing will go further south than thought. That said ,we will have hungry animals in august/September. prices will rise too much because they haven't rationed enough and frost this fall will catch somebody.  How sure am I now?  I went to 90% heged with cash and puts for corn. I am not bet the farm sure. I advise the same. Thank and being on phone I am sure I havtypoos.. decipher please

 

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 139
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
0

Re: Market Poised

I have no positions on. I liquidated my old crop long bean/short new crop bean spread tuesday.
Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,247
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Market Poised

What is that german word...Schaudenfreude??  you know where you can't help but feel a little giddy when somebody is trying to make a buck shorting the commodity market and gets his privates squeezed so tightly that he screams?

 

I have sympathy for livestock producers trying to ride out high commodity prices, but not a lot for speculators trying to make a quick strike by shorting and getting burned instead.

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller