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01-22-2013 10:39 PM
01-22-2013 10:47 PM - edited 01-22-2013 10:50 PM
sorry NIA, couldn't resist...and & i don't track indivual activity of eplants.....i'm just going from the USDA data b/c the mkt responds to them, not b/c i think they are entirely accurate...that the apetite didn't appear too squelched......I tend to agree with Pat (edit)- and MT, the trend in production is down until it is NOT....and usage ain't going away...it will continue to go up slowly with time.
A Last thought though...b/c of how i believe the usage situation is shaping up...when US supply is not so tight, the demand that "appeared" to disappear, will suddenly appear again........bottom line is my take is we are in a new generation of ag prices OVERALL.
if you say 4 bucks, i say 5 bucks, maybe even $5.50, with a "replenishing"...i think it was MT saying 2016 was trading between their, now.
01-22-2013 10:58 PM
Not trying to be negative, just realistic. Here in central Missouri as well as alot of other areas subsoil moisture is very low. Will take alot of moisture to recharge the profile. As a general rule here if we start off with low subsoil moisture the chances of average crops is usually not good. July and August are usually dry here. If it stays this dry up until planting it will take more than normal rainfall throughout the growing season to make average yeilds. We could raise average or better yeilds, but I would say it is probably more of a 70/30 chance. Patrick
01-23-2013 01:27 PM
north ia farmer,
I have snuffed out the traders' perspective on this market. See what you think. In their own words:
One trader says, "I am trying to make the case that the underpinnings of the markets have changed a lot. For instance, we are seeing increased cultivation in other lands, aggressive exports out of Brazil Ukraine., FSU etc.. Also, flattening of ethanol mandate growth and recovery from drought shortened crops, all make the case for lower prices next year. If Informa is write on corn acres we will recover above a 10% stocks-to-use in corn supplies, more if yields are normal. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere gets first shot at recovering bean supplies. So, I am at a $10-$11 bean objective and $5.10 new-crop corn objective. There are others who are more bearish than that. I do think the energy markets and the Chinese can intercede at relatively higher prices. But, that’s why I am not a 9 dollar guy in beans or 4 dollar guy in corn.
Yet another trader says, "There are a few questions that are raised for the coming year. Obviously, weather is one and demand the other. Demand will continue to be strong. That is probably going to be a given in most circles going forward. As the saying goes, you can take a man in China off his bike and introduce him to a car but it is nearly impossible to take him out of his car and put him back on his bike.
I think the real worry is a nutrient worry.
The yields last year were pitiful in a lot of counties across the country. The nutrients already in the soil and the nutrients added were not really tapped. If we have some decent and timely rains I think that the farming community is beginning to fear a crop on steroids. Those nutrients not used last year plus whatever is added this year could produce a bumper crop, if we get the moisture. That could send us to $4.50 in a hurry, even with decent demand. Obviously, lower prices would probably spur demand, but the size of the crop could be a heavy weight to hold.
But, with no rains we could have another drought year....which makes me think that this year is going to be a really big crop or a really small crop - nothing in between. This will ultimately prove to be a difficult year to hedge, market and trade," he says.
I hope this helps,