06-27-2011 08:19 AM
This crop just got blasted again............have no idea what the market wants to do..........
we are firmly below a 13B corn crop and treading water at 3.0B soya crop............
marketeye, anyone on the floor believe those two numbers..........they should..........
report ought to be interesting..........if I had to guess, bearish, try to keep grains down a bit before reality sets in, that and the incognito QE3 that is likely coming late summer.............
06-27-2011 09:01 AM
Looking out my back window I don't think there will be a big corn crop either. However, I don't think Missouri, Oklahoma Texas or Kansas ever had much to do with the size of the corn crop.
It is like a desert here. When you go south it get worse and worse. Nice thing is the humidity is so low it cools off in the evening and stays nice till noon.
Anything green here is only because of the sheer willpower of a man that believed he can do better than watch the sand blow.
Today should be a good opportuinity to reown some wheat.
06-27-2011 09:28 AM
Here's the response from a floor trader:
"Those are good numbers… I bought Dec corn last night on the idea crop conditions would decline in reports this afternoon… you are back to seeing profitability in the ethanol production and import margin into china excluding the vat tax… the only problem with the logic is that there is still a very large open interest in July, which suggests more long liquidation and the fact that Black sea feed grain is offered in the world market $40 dollars a tone cheaper than U.S. corn… that is a dollar a bushel lower…so I am a nervous long and doubt I will own anything into Friday’s report."
06-27-2011 10:04 AM
06-27-2011 11:53 AM
I just took a 60 mile north to south trip and back this morning and I don't think I've ever seen a worse looking crop overall in my life. Soybeans that obviously have been planted for a month or better are yellow...schoolbus yellow...ugly manganese and nitrogen deficient yellow...they should come out of it...but at what cost to yield?
Corn is everywhere from 8 inches tall to less than waist high...and that's the fields that got planted and weren't abandoned..and I saw plenty of them. I don't know but about 3 farmers in my area..that planted all the corn they were going to plant....and the market keeps falling.
...Man I can't wait to see what USDA dreams up on their report...
06-27-2011 12:30 PM
I think the report will be a non-effect. I think they will continue to play with numbers to make Supply/Demand match up. I don't think it matters what the report says. I think that come friday the 2nd 1/4 is dead, profits taken and away we go one way or the other. Only the fund managers know.
It is interesting to see these feedyards feed cattle. They are bidding 85 for corn stalks again to feed the WDG's. They even feed the leftovers from the butchered cattle stomachs.
06-27-2011 01:16 PM
Interesting point of info I just found in some NASS acreage estimate data ahead of Thursday's report: The largest U.S. Change in acres between the June report and the final report was in 2008, when it was adjusted downward 1.3 million acres, or 1.5%. With the way things are shaping up this summer (so far, at least), do you think we'll beat that number this year?
06-27-2011 02:12 PM
I wonder what's up with the market keeps falling here and crop keeps going backwards with all lthe rain we had. Were not in corn country but wheat, Canola, and Soybeans here are showing alot of stress from to much rain with yellowing showing up through the low ground. Also probably have lost another 5% to drowned out with this past weeks storms. What we hear our neighbors in Canada have had severe rains with lot of ground lost to flooding. The flood in Minot, ND large percentage of water is coming from Canada. The Market seems just cann't get handle on how wet its is and rain sometimes doesn't make grain. I think were heading to inventory position where the pipelines could become bare with no rationing taking place. Its like were in perfect storm and nobody is predicting possible outcomes from it. Time will tell but could get interesting by next year at this time.
06-27-2011 02:44 PM
Housing numbers available a couple of days after the month closes. Car sales, numbers out the next day after the month ends. Crop acreage is certififed by June 30. Why can't we all have those PUBLIC numbers by July 15? Some have access to them, but everyone should have access.
I was so wrong. I have posted that there should not be so much subsidy for Fed crop ins. Read that even with all the loses paid out crop insurance made 1.9 billions dollars last year. I do know the head of Rain and Hail here in Iowa is out buying all the farm ground he can get a hold off. Do you think this is also not happening in healthcare?
Read this story this morning and it just ticks me off. Most days I am not such a grouch.