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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,209
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Million dollar rain III

This crop just got blasted again............have no idea what the market wants to do..........

 

we are firmly below a 13B corn crop and treading water at 3.0B soya crop............

 

marketeye, anyone on the floor believe those two numbers..........they should..........

 

report ought to be interesting..........if I had to guess, bearish, try to keep grains down a bit before reality sets in, that and the incognito QE3 that is likely coming late summer.............

Contributor
peaceman
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

Looking out my back window I don't think there will be a big corn crop either.  However,  I don't think Missouri, Oklahoma Texas or Kansas ever had much to do with the size of the corn crop.

 

It is like a desert here.  When you go south it get worse and worse.  Nice thing is the humidity is so low it cools off in the evening and stays nice till noon. 

 

Anything green here is only because of the sheer willpower of a man that believed he can do better than watch the sand blow. 

 

Today should be a good opportuinity to reown some wheat.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,056
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

Here's the response from a floor trader:

 

"Those are good numbers… I bought Dec corn last night on the idea crop conditions would decline in reports this afternoon… you are back to seeing profitability in the ethanol production and import margin into china excluding the vat tax… the only problem with the logic is that there is still a very large open interest in July, which suggests more long liquidation and the fact that Black sea feed grain is offered in the world market $40 dollars a tone cheaper than U.S. corn… that is a dollar a bushel lower…so I am a nervous long and doubt I will own anything into Friday’s report."

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 3,904
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

I think the final result for this year will be unknown for some time yet BUT there will not be a bin buster if you go by Ontario. Yes there is great looking corn like my first planted. Knee high now, actually mid thigh. Then there is the second planting, after I was rained out, and it is just knee high and looks good too although a little later planted than I would like therefore taking some yield away. Then there is the last planted, on June 4, which will not be 'knee high by the 1st of July' and runs a risk of early frost and little or no grain yield. Drive through the country side here and you can find all those variables in different % where ever you go AND there is corn that is even later than my last planting. I saw a large area last Friday that was just getting to about the 3 leaf stage, a long way from the bin. So what I am saying is there is so much variability that final yield average is just unpredictable in Ontario at this time but there will not be as much as we had last year. Same area planted by latest figures but less corn for certain.
Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
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Pupdaddy
Posts: 618
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

I just took a 60 mile north to south trip and back this morning and I don't think I've ever seen a worse looking crop overall in my life. Soybeans that obviously have been planted for a month or better are yellow...schoolbus yellow...ugly manganese and nitrogen deficient yellow...they should come out of it...but at what cost to yield?

Corn is everywhere from 8 inches tall to less than waist high...and that's the fields that got planted and weren't abandoned..and I saw plenty of them. I don't know but about 3 farmers in my area..that planted all the corn they were going to plant....and the market keeps falling.

 

...Man I can't wait to see what USDA dreams up on their report...

Contributor
stupid
Posts: 24
Registered: ‎03-01-2011
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

Pup where was the trip?

Contributor
peaceman
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

I think the report will be a non-effect.  I think they will continue to play with numbers to make Supply/Demand match up.  I don't think it matters what the report says.  I think that come friday the 2nd 1/4 is dead, profits taken and away we go one way or the other.  Only the fund managers know.

 

It is interesting to see these feedyards feed cattle.  They are bidding 85 for corn stalks again to feed the WDG's.  They even feed the leftovers from the butchered cattle stomachs.

Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 966
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

Interesting point of info I just found in some NASS acreage estimate data ahead of Thursday's report: The largest U.S. Change in acres between the June report and the final report was in 2008, when it was adjusted downward 1.3 million acres, or 1.5%. With the way things are shaping up this summer (so far, at least), do you think we'll beat that number this year?

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Frequent Contributor
ag-?
Posts: 77
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

I wonder what's up with the market keeps falling here and crop keeps going backwards with all lthe rain we had.  Were not in corn country but wheat, Canola, and Soybeans here are showing alot of stress from to much rain with yellowing showing up through the low ground. Also probably have lost another 5% to drowned out  with this past weeks storms. What we hear our neighbors in Canada have had severe rains with lot of ground lost to flooding. The flood in Minot, ND large percentage of water is coming from Canada. The Market seems just cann't get handle on how wet its is and rain sometimes doesn't make grain. I think were heading to inventory position where the pipelines could become bare with no rationing taking place. Its like were in perfect storm and nobody is predicting  possible outcomes from it. Time will tell but could get interesting by next year at this time.

Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
0

Re: Million dollar rain III

Housing numbers available a couple of days after the month closes.  Car sales, numbers out the next day after the month ends.  Crop acreage is certififed by June 30.  Why can't we all have those PUBLIC numbers by July 15?  Some have access to them, but everyone should have access.

 

I was so wrong.  I have posted that there should not be so much subsidy for Fed crop ins.  Read that even with all the loses paid out  crop insurance made 1.9 billions dollars last year.  I do know the head of Rain and Hail here in Iowa is out buying all the farm ground he can get a hold off.  Do you think this is also not happening in healthcare?

 

Read this story this morning and it just ticks me off.  Most days I am not such a grouch.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/politics-is-a-scam--why-i-will-never-vote-again-2011-6

 

 

So. IA