12-05-2012 07:28 PM
12-05-2012 09:44 PM
As always pay all outstanding bills, then next years inputs, and then depending on what levels of risk you are comfortable with, sell or hold. I believe strongly the market must go higher to ration demand. Without higher prices, demand could outstrip supply. Then, I believe we are in unknown area in prices. As always, small sales as the market goes up are winners.
12-06-2012 06:26 AM
Unseen highs maybe the case for soybeans but I'm not sure on corn. Corn demand needs to pickup and soon, without wheat over 9 or close to ten I really don't see any use of corn going to 8.50. Wheat market is dependent on feed wheat supplies world wide AND the need for the Black sea region and Russia's export band. That being said if the demand for ethanol stays then we could see a basis rally for corn.
I still think soybeans will rally to $20 wiith in the next couple years. Demand from china, supply issues and the fact that $17 dollars IS NOT 2.5 times higher then the $8.50 high on corn.
12-06-2012 07:15 AM
12-06-2012 08:04 AM
I haven't sold a single bushel of 2013. I liquidated 100% of 2012 crop, but purchased call options to set a floor. Once we start to see a movement trend, I will liquidate options to recover additional revenue or limit my losses. Any way, I've got money in the bank with downside protection.
12-07-2012 07:55 PM
2013 crop. just seems like there is a whole lot more upside than downside for fall 2013 sales when considering the price, lack of carryover, lack of world supplies and extremely early weather concerns.
12-07-2012 08:22 PM
Hate to be the devils advocate here but you can't totally ignore the fact that new crop corn prices have been nearly $1 to $1.50 higher than previous dec-jan years. The $6.50 area at least lifts an eyebrow as a place to start on a small scale.