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02-15-2013 09:20 PM
Think Monday nights trade will be pretty important for what happens in the next 60 days. As well as where we set Spring prices. We have programmed in a lot of bearish news in the last two weeks and markets have still not "folded." I am bullish long term, but think that market tries to run the stops just below where support was this week. My opinion. Feel free to post yours, or shoot holes in mine. It does seem that the weather pattern has changed a bit. Course, it doesn't take much to change from hot and dry for 90 days to a little moisture and not as hot.
Disclamier: I sold out of 2012 crop 2 weeks ago. I also have about 5% of 2013 crop sold a little bit above current levels. Flame Away!
02-15-2013 10:30 PM
Say C-X-1, read what I posted about Bob Utterback's advice for our 2013 crop and let me know what you think. It is titled under Utterback in the Marketing thread.
02-15-2013 11:10 PM
02-16-2013 04:16 AM
CX1, I completely agree with you. I was curious about what a marketing advisor could bring to my operation so I have been working with one the last couple of years. Maybe the drought has not allowed their service to play their normal game, but I am thinking they limit your risk at the expense of limiting the potential of a large reward. Don't misunderstand me, I'm not completely against some of their advice, but seems they are always playing the chasing game or catch up game. Making decisions of what the market has done versus what the market is about to do. I know that no one can actually predict the markets with 100% accuracy, but it seems they are always a few days behind or ahead of what the market is doing therefore leaving lots of money on the table. One thing is for sure, they are making money off of every trade I make, and that is money right off the icing on my cake.
02-16-2013 03:51 PM - edited 02-16-2013 03:52 PM
Does anyone here currently subscribe to a paid newsletter to get another opinion? Seems like a cheap alternative for some additional clarity on the markets. I have heard a lot of people comment lately how they are pretty unsatisfied with their advisors.
02-16-2013 04:04 PM
02-16-2013 04:40 PM
I have seen one of his reports before and it is very good information. Personally, I like to look at the markets initially from a technical standpoint and then look forward to any major reports/events (fundamentals) that will effect prices. Fundamentally there are so many things that effect prices that I think its practically impossible to keep up to date with all of them. Technicals take away all the market noise. Anyone else on here like to follow more of a techincal approach using charts?
02-16-2013 08:36 PM - edited 02-17-2013 12:46 AM
it makes common sense to me that a mass advisor would have to be more generic. Their business plan is DIFFERENT than yours or mine.
Some possible questions/thoughts to ponder: that a competent advisor would council on.
1. knowing the risk level you are comfortable with.
2. in an extreme environment, a deeper understanding of the what/why of mkt dynamics are going on.
3. is it possible to limit risk with less limit on potential for a larger reward?
4. is advisor working more from a place of fear of losing your business than an understanding of your goals.
I don't think the goal can ever be trying to predict 100%, rather calculated, exhaustive research and analysis to maximize potential. Some/most advisors say the higher volatility environment we are in prevents accurate prediction--can't say i agree - for me, it can be just opposite. ...and if concerned about over trading (i've done it) step back---re-evaluate.
When i first began learning commodities, the guy made point that brokers motivation is not usually the same as customer.....even though ethics have probably gotton a bit better. The best intentioned advice might come out sideways simply b/c of fundamental difference of business perspective. ...Yes, any good bus needs a written plan, but the best decisions often come from that quieter place in the mind.......+ written plan is static.... IMO best plan has to provide for tweeks b/c life/markets are FLUID - ie. needs dynamic adjustments.
Yes, i agree, this climate is historic (extreme) and might be "deer in the headlighting" a lot of people. This is one thing i've been lasered in on & one big reason i was attracted to this site. Our weather pattern might very well be outside the spectrum of century. Love all the "trendline yield stuff" and "historically, after a drought year, we return to normal".....SOMETIMES WE have to think and see outside the box, right.
I tried some sales jobs before commodities. Best part was training. This guy was great at communicating HOW we learn/process information and perform tasks
.....begins with 1.(unconscious incompetence) - we don't know what we don't know to 2. becoming aware of what's unknown to 3. conscious competence (have to think or concentrate) FINALLY - 4. Unconscious competence....(eg. driving - all the navigating thru crazy traffic ,etc)
Any good business decision has an element of this to it.----many variables at play at the same time. My best profits have come when i come from a quiet knowing or confidence---not arrogant or cocky. Can't say enough that for both trader/farmer alike managing emotions is top priority and knowing psychological extreme points in market (fear & greed)
i've followed commercial activity a long time (COT), but began week to week charting of their net position couple years ago. Corn + 65,000 contracts net last wk. This showed bullish divergence from last lower swing low (Jan 7)