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09-09-2011 09:01 AM - edited 09-09-2011 09:06 AM
Alright, let's hear it! What do you think USDA will do in its Crop Production and WASDE reports Monday? Think they'll cut corn and soybean production accurately? Are you doing any market posturing ahead of the numbers or just sitting back and holding on for the ride that could follow? Or, do you think the markets will do much, or has the trade already absorbed the likely lower harvest numbers?
Oh yeah, and don't stray far on Monday -- Mike and I will be bugging everybody we know to cover the reports and market reactions. If you have any questions you'd like us to poke around when we're chatting with analysts and traders, let us know!
09-09-2011 12:34 PM - edited 09-09-2011 12:36 PM
The Western econ diametric thought process is likely focused on "default."
Greece, EU, possibly the usa on down the line ( demorepub lack of changing usa diametric to equity rather than debt also ).
Might not matter if the report is only 1 bu of new corn expected, the W diametric is basically the whole of corn pricing.
Pac Basin is in good shape, thus good for the protiens.
( if the whole of the W econ goes into "freezeup" mode next week, it's a whole new ballgame so to speak and everything perceived as a close to the plate food need product could move up 25% in the following 2 to 3 weeks ),
Consumers react to the afore in a "safety up" fashion.
09-09-2011 01:44 PM
The market just might have mondays report dialed in...... But do they have the Frost for next week?...... Do they have the FSA prevent plant acres report that is coming out next thursday?....... most likely not........p-oed
09-09-2011 01:53 PM
IMHO whatever the USDA says will be inconsequential. It`s gonna be tight regardless, now is the time to be honest, so that everyone has time to get their houses in order. D Kruse said the truth about ethanol is finally coming out 23% of corn crop goes to ethanol NOT the 40% lie that`s spread. Also gasoline would be 89¢ higher without ethanol.
09-09-2011 02:47 PM
My prediction is that the USDA will report a lower acreage number for both corn and beans. Their yields will be just a couple of bushels lower on corn yield and about .5 bushel on their bean yield. They "found" that magical 300 million bushels of corn in an earlier report so they can't "find" 300 milion again can they? Well, I guess they can do anything they want.
09-09-2011 06:13 PM
09-09-2011 10:47 PM
Whatever the USDA reports, it is fairly usual anymore for the markets to go contrarian for up to 10 days before realigning with the fundamentals. During these periods we get all kinds of fancy explanations regarding this relationship and that - but in the end it makes little difference. Big moves will come late on a short crop. Why is a bit hard to define, burt as is usually true - the futures markets are usually a lagging indicator.