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Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Monday's USDA numbers

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Alright, let's hear it! What do you think USDA will do in its Crop Production and WASDE reports Monday? Think they'll cut corn and soybean production accurately? Are you doing any market posturing ahead of the numbers or just sitting back and holding on for the ride that could follow? Or, do you think the markets will do much, or has the trade already absorbed the likely lower harvest numbers?

 

 Oh yeah, and don't stray far on Monday -- Mike and I will be bugging everybody we know to cover the reports and market reactions. If you have any questions you'd like us to poke around when we're chatting with analysts and traders, let us know!

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Senior Contributor
rightone
Posts: 217
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Monday's USDA numbers

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The Western econ diametric thought process is likely focused on "default."

Greece, EU, possibly the usa on down the line ( demorepub lack of changing usa diametric to equity rather than debt also ).

Might not matter if the report is only 1 bu of new corn expected, the W diametric is basically the whole of corn pricing.

 

Pac Basin is in good shape, thus good for the protiens.

 

(  if the whole of the W econ goes into "freezeup" mode next week, it's a whole new ballgame so to speak and everything perceived as a close to the plate  food need product could move up 25% in the following 2 to 3 weeks ),

 

Consumers react to the afore in a "safety up" fashion.

Cost affective cattle for every environment here.
Veteran Contributor
glenlivet18
Posts: 116
Registered: ‎06-17-2011
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Re: Monday's USDA numbers

I'll be waiting until after the open on Monday to do anything.  Currently I'm flat.  I would not be surprised if a bullish report proves to be already priced in the market.

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 396
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Re: Monday's USDA numbers

The market just might have mondays report dialed in...... But do they have the Frost for next week?...... Do they have the FSA prevent plant acres report that is coming out next thursday?....... most likely not........p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 7,094
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Monday's USDA numbers

IMHO whatever the USDA says will be inconsequential.  It`s gonna be tight regardless, now is the time to be honest, so that everyone has time to get their houses in order. D Kruse said the truth about ethanol is finally coming out 23% of corn crop goes to ethanol NOT the 40% lie that`s spread. Also gasoline would be 89¢ higher without ethanol.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,433
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Monday's USDA numbers

My prediction is that the USDA will report a lower acreage number for both corn and beans.  Their yields will be just a couple of bushels lower on corn yield and about .5 bushel on their bean yield.  They "found" that magical 300 million bushels of corn in an earlier report so they can't "find" 300 milion again can they?  Well, I guess they can do anything they want.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
Jed Stivers
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-10-2010
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Re: Monday's USDA numbers

I lost my nerve an took 7.17 on today on the rest of this years corn. Half way through harvest and waiting till mon to srart back if the moisture is down enough. We dont have storage an have to price across the scales if not booked so those big down swings can really cost us. Most of the crop was priced in the 6.50-6.60 range so I'm kinda happy with that. Almost pulled the trigger on beans but I think we have some upside left and our bean crop is real late so have some time on them but I'm not far on taking what's offered on them, 13.97 today. also not far on starting to lock down a profit on next years crop. While I think a lot of upside is left just because of the crops themselves I think we have a big chance of other influences taking a lot of this away. Remember pigs get fed an hogs slaughtered.
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Palouser
Posts: 1,983
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Monday's USDA numbers

Whatever the USDA reports, it is fairly usual anymore for the markets to go contrarian for up to 10 days before realigning with the fundamentals. During these periods we get all kinds of fancy explanations regarding this relationship and that - but in the end it makes little difference. Big moves will come late on a short crop. Why is a bit hard to define, burt as is usually true - the futures markets are usually a lagging indicator.