10-22-2010 09:37 AM
Roy Smith is now saying that this dead cat bounce milestone is coming right up, on Tuesday. but it can go on much longer and he says that there come a point where the bounce turns into a full fledged bull market.
Well, we might not hit the top selling into this deal, but you cut your storage costs and it's attractive from a cash flow perspective. What say?
10-23-2010 05:05 AM
Like it or not it seems like China is putting money in our pockets. It's pretty hard not to make money on $11+ beans. The hardest thing for me to do is sell grain when money isn't needed. Are there any long term forecasts for South American weather?
10-25-2010 03:10 PM
Not a weather forecast but, a description of China'as reaction to Brazil's issues.
By Reese Ewing
SAO PAULO, Brazil, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Belated rains over
Brazil's soy belt may not mean a smaller harvest but a delayed
one is almost assured, which will force buyers such as China to
rely on U.S. Gulf soybeans into April.
In fact, China is already locking in U.S. exports for early
next year, in case Brazil's crop is delayed getting to port by
weather or the country's famously inefficient infrastructure
and unpredictable labor situation.
In 2009, thanks to El Nino, rains came so early and
abundantly in Mato Grosso the main soy producing state, that
farms were harvesting in December. But this season the flip
side of the weather coin, La Nina, is at play and that tends to
reduce and delay rainfall in Brazil.
If so, the U.S. Gulf market for beans may enjoy a longer
season, if Brazil is off the market for an extra month or
"We are seeing China booking ships for the Gulf ports in
March, April, May, which for the us is unusual," Michael
Cordonnier, agronomist at Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale,
This may be behind U.S. soybean export sales hitting a
two-month high last week, nearly doubling from the previous
week amid heavy sales to China, the world's top importer of the
oilseed, traders said. [ID:nN21286129]
10-26-2010 04:18 PM
It seems Roy is changing his outlook. 2 weeks ago I believe he said the bounce was going to end on the 19th. Is this the 2nd bounce? From what I remember about falling out of the skid loader this summer the 2nd bounce was noticeably smaller than the 1st.