Marketing

[Rob SC NE]

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/typical-dead-cat-bounce_2-ar11673

Roy Smith is now saying that this dead cat bounce milestone is coming right up, on Tuesday.  but it can go on much longer and he says that there come a point where the bounce turns into a full fledged bull market.

Well, we might not hit the top selling into this deal, but you cut your storage costs and it's attractive from a cash flow perspective. What say?

Rob

[nwobcw]

Like it or not it seems like China is putting money in our pockets.  It's pretty hard not to make money on $11+ beans.  The hardest thing for me to do is sell grain when money isn't needed.  Are there any long term forecasts for  South American weather?

[wt510151]

Yes, it sure is hard to give that money to the government so it can pay our debts to China. :

[Palouser]

Not a weather forecast but, a description of China'as reaction to Brazil's issues.

By Reese Ewing

    SAO PAULO, Brazil, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Belated rains over

Brazil's soy belt may not mean a smaller harvest but a delayed

one is almost assured, which will force buyers such as China to

rely on U.S. Gulf soybeans into April.

    In fact, China is already locking in U.S. exports for early

next year, in case Brazil's crop is delayed getting to port by

weather or the country's famously inefficient infrastructure

and unpredictable labor situation.

    In 2009, thanks to El Nino, rains came so early and

abundantly in Mato Grosso the main soy producing state, that

farms were harvesting in December. But this season the flip

side of the weather coin, La Nina, is at play and that tends to

reduce and delay rainfall in Brazil.

    If so, the U.S. Gulf market for beans may enjoy a longer

season, if Brazil is off the market for an extra month or

more.

    "We are seeing China booking ships for the Gulf ports in

March, April, May, which for the us is unusual," Michael

Cordonnier, agronomist at Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale,

Illinois, said.

    This may be behind U.S. soybean export sales hitting a

two-month high last week, nearly doubling from the previous

week amid heavy sales to China, the world's top importer of the

oilseed, traders said. [ID:nN21286129]

[nwobcw]

   It seems Roy is changing his outlook.  2 weeks ago I believe he said the bounce was going to end on the 19th.  Is this the 2nd bounce?  From what I remember about falling out of the skid loader this summer the 2nd bounce was noticeably smaller than the 1st.