Agriculture News, Markets, Weather, Ag Talk, Farm Machinery | Agriculture.com
Reply
Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,190
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

NC beans- March trend- CX1?

Hello guys, I have heard that the new crop contract is now trading a 3 year low. What do you guys see the potential bottom being in beans if we start to head lower post-Friday? I get that old is tight, and I sold old at mostly the high end of the spectrum.

 

I am really concerned that I need to get some NC beans on the books now: sitting at about 12/bushel today. Definitely not interested in storing 10 beans to get 10.50 like all the "put" strategies some guys like around here (i.e. put it into the bin, put 1.50/bu into someone else's hands).

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012

Re: NC beans- March trend- CX1?

 it is always interesting to see a trend for so many days heading into the biggest report of the year....could be tipping the hand already.

 

obviously, there has been some producer selling going into Friday.....I personally wouldn't short it at this point (chase) it..........................I'd look for mkt reaction after report for a trade-say, if we get a spike or capitulation type low with heavy stopping (trade) volume.

 

the odds of NC at least testing lows of channel (1145) breakout are very high...the odds of this breakdown being a fakeout are better than 50% IMPO...........hope this helps.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,653
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: NC beans- March trend- CX1?

Going into the 20th week of the marketing year nearly 1/3 of the entire US crop of beans is sold out of the country.  

sw
Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,190
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: NC beans- March trend- CX1?

Sw, I'm not talking old crop. 13-14 was enough to get rid of old crop. Stocks are tight for '13 crop.

I'm primarily concerned w the post south America/ no drought map 2014 crop year.

I think I got what I needed here though. might just wait
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: NC beans- March trend- CX1?

I believe sw is referring to NC.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,653
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: NC beans- March trend- CX1?

I have mixed feelings on new crop.  Had made my mind up we would get a few priced around 12.  Gave up waiting waiting about 11.75 and now wish I had done a few more.  But I still think the down is limited because the US is going to finish another year very short supply.  Even though cattle placements are going to be low again.

sw