08-02-2011 10:08 AM
Posted Freese-Notis weather/markets story on the site this morning: "USDA claims unchanged national corn ratings this past week, though you can make a case that there is not a lot of logic in that.
"After all, we saw significant deterioration in ratings given to major producing states such as Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Missouri, and Nebraska; that deterioration in those states should have logically meant a fall in national ratings, as improved ratings for states such as Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, and Wisconsin should not have been enough to outweigh the deterioration seen elsewhere."
Regardless, the rating this week of 62 percent good to excellent is nine percentage points worse than a year ago (on a crop that did not yield that well in the end) and is also rated worse than the crops of 2008 and 2009 for this time, but is still rated better than the crops of 2005 through 2007 as of the end of July."
Thoughts on where this crop is headed?
08-02-2011 10:21 AM
John....I stated before and will state it again, there is no way the 158 national yield that USDA is predicting will happen. Has to be less then 2010 and that was 152. When 30% of the corn (or more) is planted in June it is not the recipe for trend line yields. Throw in a hot July and it almost guarantees much less then trend line. A matter of time before the numbers show up even if it has to wait until the combines roll.
08-02-2011 12:03 PM
John I really think at the end of this growing season there will be many shocked farmers. My last vacation prior to this one was in 2009 that took me through Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska on my way to Colorado. I just got back from vacationing in South Dakota last week and I believe this corn crop looks better in Iowa than the 2009 crop. The vast corn fields of southern Minnesota looked better than I had expected by a long shot and southeastern South Dakota looks like they could be headed for a large corn crop as well. The corn in my backyard may look like s$$t, but overall I believe the US crop will yield in the 156-158 range..... go ahead guys think what you will if you are waiting for $10 corn I think you will be disappointed. The soybeans I believe will be the big story. The only state I have been into that had excellent looking beans most of the way through was Iowa. Here in the ECB soybeans are hit or miss at best, you see one field of beans looking great next to the field that looks like it will struggle to make 30 bushel and I noticed that in a lot of the corn belt. Unless we have a weather pattern change or a tropical disturbance in the gulf like a hurricane that pushes widespread moisture across the cornbelt I believe we end up with a US soybean yield average of around 39 bushel....... That's the "blacksand report" folks, we will see how close I am here in a couple months. Like po-ed likes to say, this information is worth what you paid for it haha.
08-02-2011 01:51 PM
After the last 3 years, why does anyone even look at the crop conditions report? It is statistically a very weak indicator.
Just keep track of planting date, moisture and temperature deviation from normal.
On that basis it is impossible to get an average crop, let alone trend.
The market broke out today. Better go with it for awhile.
08-02-2011 03:00 PM - edited 08-02-2011 03:01 PM
time:thetippingpoint, Are you covering your bean hedges to protect against the $3.60 move?
It was nice of the bean market to clean out the last lows by a tick or two, then reverse in the face of lower crude. The next 30 days should be interesting.
08-02-2011 03:30 PM
mvp farms you may be right, and since I am only used to looking at burned up corn in my backyard the corn out your way might just appear to be a bumper crop. I think we will know more when the pro farmer crop tour starts up soon.
08-03-2011 08:27 AM
I think the USDA, like almost any government agency has a lot of 'lag time' for their reports. Perhaps they did the condition ratings before the latest wave of heat came through.
I know personally, I will have trendline or better yileds, from the looks of things. The dryland is going bad fast, but I don't have a lot of dryland, and the irrigated looks very, very good. This is my fields only, and I was done planting by May 7th, so pollenation came before the bad heat. I don't know what it looks like on the fields that tasselled in the worst heat. Ironically, the corn planted end of may or first of June looks like it will hit a few days of cooler weather for pollenation. However, we should be in kernel fill stage, and there is still corn out there that hasn't begun to tassel yet. My corn is about 6-19 days behind, and I was one of the first 5 people in the neighborhood done planting. Most got some corn in, then the bout of wet weather stopped them for a week to 10 days, which would put their crops 2+ weeks behind. If not short season corn, I don't kwow if it will beat frost.