12-02-2011 08:23 AM
You are right, we can make it work but...FYI, one year ago doing my cashflow statement, cash 2011 corn was 4.88. Very similar prices. These prices won't buy 95 million acres. We didn't need 95 million acres a year ago and we didn't get a 160 yield as we were told we would last March...MikeM
12-02-2011 09:23 AM
still will plant corn over beans. All the N put on this fall, that ground is locked in. Now tell me if it will be 220 or 140 for yield next year and that will tell me if I am oversold or not. More acres nationwide, harder to hit the 160 or above yield. THat is MHO.
12-02-2011 09:48 AM
Why would you sell now? If you look at the CZ1 futures, you will see that at this time last year prices for the new crop were actually worse than where the CZ2 futures is today. We're right at 30 cents higher today on the CZ2 than we were a year ago on this day on the CZ1. I can't recall a time when the highest price for new crop was seen in the previous December to when the crop was planted.
12-02-2011 10:10 AM
As of right now, I wish I sold more 2012 crop.
However, at this time last year, I wish I had sold more 2011 crop (which I contracted for about $5.35)
By spring, I wished I had more to sell @ $6, and by summer, I had almost nothing to sell @ $7
The old saying goes, you usually get 2 chances to sell a crop. I just need to be ready when that 2nd chance comes around.
12-02-2011 10:18 AM
I'd look at what everyone else is doing........and then I'd do the opposite. Got to have someone on that side of the boat!
12-02-2011 12:29 PM
Coulda woulda shoulda on selling more 2012 a couple months ago. I have not set myself on anything that would be corn on corn next year. I will let the market tell me what to do in March on those acres. Was obviously heavy corn for 2011, so I have quite a few acres to swing. I don't typically do corn three years in a row, so those acres will be beans. What will probably happen, is we will get a one dollar pop early and if producers do what they normally do, we will ride the market up and back down and sell for less than what it is today.