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Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,673
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Yes, but VR until there`s a ear to measure and count how does crop ratings mean a lot on yield.  Those driving by my corn all summer would say "excellent above 200", but walking the fields is a different story.   And I know a guy that chops a lot of silage, made a cutting of hay and planted corn June 20, well, it come up behind the planter, quickly covered the rows and dark green, tall and excellent all summer, but if it went for grain that "excellent corn might be 130bu if the frost stayed away. 

 

 

On the flip side, one guy had a seedbed prep and planter depth problem on a field so a thin stand and it looked like crap, it was poor, but the ears flexed and he reported a respectable 170...of course everyone else was getting 200-230, but that poor field was a "USDA national yield" yielding field.   And with beans, this coming September weather will determine if the beans are 2500 seeds per lb or 3500 seeds per lb, so that`s a real crap shoot guessing the yield.

 

But I agree, I want my crops rated excellent all summer, especially I don`t want my corn to ever have a bad day in it`s life.   But this year in my case at ear determination time, that dry weather told the plant to put on shorter ears with a little less girth.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,673
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

My Dad didn`t have a pickup until the late 60`s (pickups were for rich folks) He had a 1950 Chevy 6500, 16` box hauled livestock and grain and feed and junk, for a "pickup" he had a 54` Chevy and pulled wooden 2 wheel trailer.  But about `69 he bought a 3/4 ton 1964 Chevy that came from the iron range in Minnesota.  Then he bought a 74 Chevy and in 1984 he bought a damned Ford Smiley Sad   I don`t know what got into him.   Smiley Happy

Advisor
Posts: 1,026
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Again, less pods doesn't equate to more yield. You can listen to chips spin all day long. The raw data coming from the tour was worse then his published final number. Chippy has a data base to put the final number into a range and he ignored it. He kept it close to usda. Do you not find it funny he had a Nass employee locked to his hip during the tour doing fist bumps about publishing a 169 in August.
Advisor
Posts: 1,026
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

If your talking about the August report it was bunk. Nass policy states they take the five year average for ear weights if the ears are too immature to sample and adjust it from farmer surveys. They didn't do that at all. They took trend and back crossed it from the plant populations they could use. Fist bump that. So far the people trying to find the true national yields are hell bent on taking short cuts to prove a big crop and keep perceived carryouts high. We aren't talking a 2012 event, we are talking a 2010 event or a 2013 event. And they won't admit it.
Advisor
Posts: 1,026
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

169 coming this the conditions rating compared to the last few years. In the dumper.  

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,673
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

I don`t know about 2011, but 2013 was a terrible year for N Iowa and S Minnesota, to use `13 as an analogous year probably Ohio would swap places because of their replants, then the Dakota drought.   It`s possible that the final nat yield will be 159 like in `13, then though Minnesota had 160..this year it`ll be more like the 177 + record year.  Ivthink, the areas where the ratings are weighted will play out more.  As in is a acre of corn in Ohio equal to a acre in the Dakotas or eastern belt, of course, Pennsylvania and Kentucky claim they have good yields coming, so does that cancel out a poorer yield in western Nebraska? 

 

http://www.farmandranchguide.com/news/crop/usda-report-confirms-larger-corn-soybean-crops/article_28...   

 

That from 2014 describing `13 and previous crops and USDA guesses.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,451
Registered: ‎10-17-2012

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Hears the problem - In my book - The so called marketing guys do what they do best - trade other peoples problems - that's how they make there money - They use past data - fake news from the USDA - Pro Farmer Tour - you name it - but in real life there Fing clueless ! They don't have much or any idea on production of corn or beans or -- Elcheapo's favorite - wheat ! If they can swing the numbers to there way then that's even better - as they have a good idea were there bread will be made !

 

Production ag is a total different breed of cat - to much rain - no rain - late planted - lost N - poor stands - late dry weather - you guys know - We are headed to break a record dry Aug , set back around 1874 !

 

I looked at beans yesterday - top 2 nodes have a lot of 2 bean pods - some 3 pods with 2 in it . Corn - I will tell you when I shell : ))

 

I'm not saying it will be a total disaster - I do have some good looking corn as well as beans - yet they are hurt from the dry

 

Had a drone up yesterday also - I bet that the Pro Tour didn't see what I seen yesterday !

 

I just hate when people with no skin in the game - but for there personal gain just burns my ***** !

Advisor
Posts: 1,026
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

If it is like 2013 you can add a bushel a year for increasing trend. That is four bushel above the 2013 yield, Or a yield of 163. With that yield carryouts drop below 1.5 billion and we head for the upper 4 dollar mark as well as bidding corn acres away from beans. So simple, so easy. What if we drop yield to 164 because we are one or two percent points better then 2013. We rally price to 4.40. It isn't rocket science and traders have used this process since 1985. Get grain cheap and keep the simple plowboys in the dark.
Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,448
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

Ok Ray, As I see it is this.........2.3 billion is the current carryover number.   The PFT has production at 13.9 billion.......current demand number is 14.6 billion.  That alone decreases carryover to 1.6 billion.  Now with the low prices, let's assume a 300 million bushel increase in demand and a 300 million bushel decrease in production which is more in line with ACTUAL crop conditions........guess what? you have a carryover next year of 1 billion bushels. 

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,199
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: No Spin Zone On Corn

We are hovering just a few pennies from that price that starts with a "2" on corn this morning.

 

All the price  later corn is supposed to be hanging over our heads, well it's just paper bushels, most is gone, used up, not available.

Just down to the paper work. Any that was priced later was obviously formerly owned by people that didn't need the money.

 

Gonna help on the income tax bill. I notice that the machinery dealers have some shiny paint out front to help a fellow out of any remaining money.

 

On top of the Billion bushels or more of depressed priced grain there is two billion more not even in the pipeline. I saw one field combined just south of Seneca, Ks Sunday. So 13 billion more bushels are on the way to the traffic jam.

 

Yep life is good, 15+ billion bu available in a 14 B world. No worries , be Happy

 

Now for my thoughts, I see very little reason for a run up right away, too many not in the "money to burn" camp.

 

Operating notes, second half cash rent, farm pmts, family living, etc are needing cash. First half of this crop will hit the scales by Dec 1. Minimum payments quit working after you hit your limit, many are there. Price is secondary, even if it is not enough.

 

I'm still not sure that basis still will have to do the heavy lifting in many areas after January. I though it would be about now but as usual I seem to be mistaken.