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01-16-2017 10:30 AM - edited 01-16-2017 11:18 AM
What would you like to discuss about the markets that you don't get a chance to ask about when the markets are trading? Here is my list of thought-starters:
1. Is wheat going the way of oats, in the U.S.?
2. Less wheat, less corn. What? Are we going to blow through record amounts of soybean acres in 2017?
3. Ice storm, widespread coverage may mean good moisture for spring seedbed?
4. Nov. '17 Soybeans at $10.18. Sell sell sell the soybean rally? Are you on that bandwagon? Trigger finger getting itchy?
5. Has your banker called lately to discuss these market prices? Just curious. And if so, what are they asking about?
Ready, set go!
01-16-2017 11:20 AM
I think Iowa farmers still like to plant corn, what if the stars don`t line up again for 70bu bean yields and we go back to 40? Well, 40 X $10 is $400 gross, not much with all the inputs. On corn, there`s at least the thought that it`s already in the basement and has potential for improvement, there are some Iowa acres that you get 200 bu as sure as the Sun rises in the east, where bean yields above 50 are historically hard to achieve.
Some wheat acres will go to beans, there might be 3 million more acres of beans than USDA is predicting.
My Banker knows better than to call me, I`d just ask him for more money.
01-16-2017 12:12 PM
Still light rain here with maybe a quarter inch of ice on the trees, light wind, and the temp has risen to 33* so will be ok here.
My guess is there will be a lot of "Kansas boys" wishing they had planted more wheat last Fall.
Corn and beans? Records crops will not likely continue.
There are uncertain times ahead so "keep your ears open."
01-16-2017 12:22 PM - edited 01-16-2017 12:23 PM
1. There will always be healthy demand for milling quality wheat with good protein content.
We have several mills in southen MN that seem to be getting further and further away from where it's grown.
Wheat just doesn't pencil out vs corn/beans in our area.
2. 2016 saw a trend towards more beans in our area. Normal rotation will keep too much of it from happening.
3. We're too wet already but south and southeast can sure use it.
4. Irritating thing about the bean "rally" is the basis moves to take a healthy bite of the cash bid.
Local elevators are -$0.75 and -$0.80 under. Processors 25 miles away are -$0.55 and -$0.68 under.
All have increased 5 to 10 cents in the last week.
5. Haven't talked to the banker since we stuck him for coffee about 6 months ago. He quit showing up.
01-16-2017 01:12 PM
Just remember -------------- You asked - lol
My GUESS for Indiana - Wheat - not much around - I quit 25 years ago - didn't pencil out back then , the ones that do - plan on double crop beans - that is never a given here .
Corn should be down - beans - around the same - maybe up some , Indiana is a very diverse state - again -- a guess - more tomato's , flowers , popcorn , - pumpkins , melons - green beans you name it . Corn and beans may take the lead as far as crops - but we do have alternative's and they will explore them all . More Non GMO's to boot .
Wheat compared to oat's ??? Have to agree - them boy's out west might as well sell there drills and plant Rubarb or Cowflower - wheat is history ! Done ! Kaput ! Best thing to do is not plant any --- ANY - But then again - they will just plant corn or beans and screw up our markets ! Maybe they can put in a new law to keep them from raising corn or beans !!
I agree with BA - You Iowa guys can grow corn - but then again - All you have to do is walk out and throw out 6 seeds and 10 come up - Why plant anything that might be work ! Right ??? Throw it out and then harvest 250 bph - Not much to it with that low of COP . Corn will rule in Ioway !
Sell beans on the rally ??? With all the rain in Argy , some flooded - some not even planted - some burning up - demand is still good - Might be good to sell some but I think I will ride this one a bit = That means you should sell all of them . - Ken's Guess - lmao !
The BIG numbers coming out of S.A. are like our's !!!! there data is a month old - will be interesting what the next report will say from down South . Wonder what the market would do with a 15 % down yield or so ??
Another year of hearing Mr Cheapo - pizz and moan about ? well about anything - lol jking with yeah
Well - Thats about it - I guess
01-16-2017 03:49 PM - edited 01-16-2017 04:00 PM
well at least i'm glad i can do that EC...this wheat harvest it was red not yellow !!!!
wheat and oats...haven't raised oats since 2010..that year my father died, and we used the oats that were just getting ripe in the flower
arrangements. we always used to plant "patchs" to oats...the year before he sold some oats to the elevator for $4 a bu...the most
he had ever sold it for.
i was thinking of planting some last year, to get a field into cycle...i could get the seed, which was $5 to $6 a bu (and we plant about
2 bu an acre)...but i talked to all the local elevators...and i could not get rid of them...
now oatmeal is still popular..and the seed is shipped in from the dakota's. the local elevators are "coopedized" and did away with their
feed mills...so dealers from away came in and made the money...so no need for oats....now the coop's "see the light" and now are
selling stuff not produced in their elevators, such as ADM and pruina.
wheat....around here, one of the cheapest things you can put in the ground...clean out the bin, run it thru your cleaner, put on
some nh3 and a little phos, either 24d or dicamba, to slow down the buckwheat and bindweed, then some simple chemicals
come out that didn't hurt the plants....worse come to worse you graze it out....only beauty of wheat, at least around these parts,
you can cut the wheat and turn around and put in some beans or short season milo, millet, sudan, and some are now even
using OP short season corn for $20 an acre and get a second crop....IF you have moisture.
beans, another cheap crop at least here....looking at RR1 beans at about $25 a bag...and before you start to holler and start to laugh,
most of pioneer beans were RR1 for a long time....can also get liberty beans for about $36 to $40.....intend to run some pre at about
$12 or less an acre and either glyphos at $3 an acre or generic liberty for about $13 ac, or mix...throw in $15 of phos, and your
done...but we don't have bottom ground either
milo...biggest factor SCA.....otherwise....9 to 12 for seed, about $25 for a generic lumax......around 100# if n, and some phos, you
corn....i feel this is not an area to raise corn....guys around here are doing it, but some of our soils are not that deep, and
i've seen corn burn up....alot of money out there in field....i'm amazed how the double crop corn works....granted you
are getting around 60 bu....but i can't see if you throw some chem or fert on it.
selling beans....my worse skill is marketing.....honest, i feel more confused than at any time...maybe too much information, maybe
too much information, but wrong information, or people/companies are giving misleading info, to profit from you...it could be one
or all of the above. i talked to one trader the other day, he was so proud of himself how he locked in 1040 nc beans, for only 11
cents...i checked the quotes no way...so i called and asked how it was done...well it was done by selling some other options, and
then buying another one...long story short, it took 4 different trades to get to that point.
the price quoted in this thread would have 90 neg basis for us....can i cover my cost at mid 9's....yes.....do i want more
YES....so maybe it might not hurt to make "some sort of entry" into the market....the best way to do that....i don't know.
do forward price...ok, quick and cheap, but got shot in the foot with basis....options, only about 60 cents a bu.....
a fellow wants to get things done at least cost......so you wait....hoping...could we see a spring rally....yes....
that is the "el cheapo" side in me...yes i know we need to do something, but how can we do it cheap....and have
a good outcome....i'll admit i need help with that.
rain, last 24 hrs, offical report is 1.37 inch....will help, i think in sw ks they did even better....
had alot of ice....i was really worried about the power, but was outside a while ago, and it rained and warmed a little and
alot of the ice is off the lines, thank god.
banker....i'm the banker. while i do a little local, i have found i can get better rates and better programs with some of the
suppliers. i can get good deals on seed, and fertilizer, parts, equipment, etc. as far as land purchases, i can go to a regional
lender and do better.
after the 70's and early 80's....i'm not a big banker fan...you have to go in and demostrate how your idea will work...most have
a preset idea of what they are going to do...this is your idea, you've done your homework, and you have to go in and talk to some
kid and "ask" for money...and they have all the ideas....no bank ever lost money on our family, yet the local bankers have
always acted like $%@#.....they never invited me over to their house for dinner, or out to eat...yet the big shots, who took
out chap 11, they are the best of buddy's.
did i forget anything ???
01-16-2017 08:41 PM
1. Is wheat going the way of oats, in the U.S.? yes but, wheat is much more versatile. It has great value as a cover crop or a grazing, that is as good as its grain market, and it fits younger cattle better than the fattening use of grains. yet can fit as high protein/quality grazing for cows as well.---and it covers a much bigger variety of climates and elevations. The harvesting of wheat acres is what is dropping most... Planted acres went down because of economics and also revitalized drought in the southern plains this last fall.
2. Less wheat, less corn. What? Are we going to blow through record amounts of soybean acres in 2017?---- lMO, there is actually no gov. program that drives planting, loan rates way below COP, whatever payment there is needs no acres planted to collect, ,,,,,,,, anyway the idea that every acres needs to be planted may be "sort of" accurate...but on the fringe they may not need to be harvested acres. usda seems to think the large number of CRP acres coming out of the program will not be broken out,,,,,I want to think economics drives it to be broken out, but I know there are acres coming out that will not find an operator in areas because of COP. (But as usual USDA has a program that is intended to help new farmers renting CRP acres coming out, yet payments go to owners to rent to new farmers who will face a market below cost of Production---sounds like gov. work)
3. Ice storm, widespread coverage may mean good moisture for spring seedbed? Super good deal in SW. Minor damage to trees, but winter moisture, snow in Sierras and southern Rockies, all means a chance to get a crop started in the spring...........we were and are a bit desperate...
4. Nov. '17 Soybeans at $10.18. Sell sell sell the soybean rally? Are you on that bandwagon? Trigger finger getting itchy?------ marginally itchy...... Acres in fringe should be leaving corn in pretty bignumbers and favoring Beans.......I was a little supprised we did not see the beginnings of it in this report. Maybe usda can't figure out basis either.
5. Has your banker called lately to discuss these market prices? Just curious. And if so, what are they asking about?------------- still trying to see how corn can cash flow......
What would you like to discuss about the markets that you don't get a chance to ask about when the markets are trading? Mike, the big issue right now is the disconnect from the futures market of actual price levels, I call, Monopoly basis practices..... It has become so extreme that producers are not able to hedge using futures because basis is not stable or predictable. Right now if wheat futures ran up to $5.50 we can't hedge it on the market and be assured we can get anything over $3.50 in actual price. for example in the last weeks wheat has gone up 50+ cents and the basis has gone down. It is an extreme blockage to marketing in terms of hedging--------- in a year that has plenty of other problems. We could see futures at $4.60 for corn and producers below COP at $3.30 on half of the planted acres.
I think it is a major uncertainty on planting plans for 2017.
01-16-2017 09:51 PM
My bankerr of choice hasn't called yet this year. Didn't call last year either. Said he was going to come out three years ago, didn't quite make it then either.
President of my other lending institution is very happy to just look up and wave then go back to work.
Soy acres could be massive. Many acres in the delta are headed to cotton instead of beans.
Many of those acres are 60 to 80 bu acres. Profit margin on the increased acre area might be microscopic. Increased acre areas are all fringe areas, high basis, low usage acres, traditionally lower yielding acres.
Iowa plants corn, beans are just planted for the next year benefit of corn.