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Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,264
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Accepted Solution

Not much demand destruction in that report

Corn export #s don't seem to matter.  Ending stocks are going down.

sw
Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 251
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

What do you see basis doing in our neck of the woods now? Already pretty good!
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,264
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

bkadds,

As you say it is good now.  This is on a limb, but I think wheat is our key.  The feeders need it to get through the year(at least some of them do).  We could yet see wheat push this market along and if it goes up corn will get drug higher at least some.  But Basis, might ramp up at the coop some but probably not at the end users.

 

New crop is another thing.  I look for basis to improve some as grains get in shorter supply this spring.  Especially if the producers see stability in prices.  That carry out number says even with SA production-----usda expects supply to stay tight.

 

just opinion--------------------today-----------------maybe this morning only.

sw
Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 251
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

I sell nothing at the coop as their basis sucks--always has and always will.
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,264
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

Bkadds,

 

Someone your way must not have liked this report.   Wow the wind just hit--------can you close that door???

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,670
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

This morning basis on corn was up a little. They have removed it back to previous levels now that corn is in the +22 up mode.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
rswfarms
Posts: 1,377
Registered: ‎12-17-2012
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

Our basis levels are pretty good right now at 21 cents over Chicago. I think in less than 2 weeks we may see 31 cents over Chicago at some of the ethanol plants. The ethanol plants in Northern Iowa generally have the best basis levels over the feed mills and the local elevators. If it hits 31 cents over Chicago, this will be one of the best basis levels at this time period that I remember. This should tell us that corn demand is still very good, at least in my area and the end users will have to bid against each other to get cash corn. Our Northern part of Iowa probably lost at least 500 Million bushels of corn to the drought. Even in a good year, every bushel of corn is needed to meet the demand from the ethanol plants, feed mills, elevators, and the 15 Million hogs that Northern Iowa feeds every year. It will be very interesting to see what basis levels will be in 2-4 months from now.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,264
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

Hobby,

 

 trying for once to learn something from this report and the main picture that keeps jumping out at me is -------- $7.5-8.00 corn did not slow usage like I expected.  Feed usage is still there even though we know animals to feed are is short supply.  

If the export/lack or exports didn't slow ending stocks decline, ethanol has not shut down/ or at least has leveled off with solid production.  We may not see surplus grains for a while.  Regardless of the ongoing drought or wet year approaching.  Just seems to me to be a pretty strong positive feeling from this one.  Not earth shaking but as good as a grain producer can expect.

 

Side note -----  At line at the dumping place yesterday----------grain end user , not the bathroom.-------------------anyway noticed that wheat trucks are dumping also.  Odd for this time of year-----with corn as available as it is going to get.

sw
Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 251
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

Gusting to 54 mph now. Dry up what little moisture we got the other day.
Senior Contributor
Slim123
Posts: 192
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
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Re: Not much demand destruction in that report

[ Edited ]

rswfarms  : Where can you get 21 cents over Chicago on corn in your neighborhood today?