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10-30-2012 10:10 PM
Darrell Good, U Illinois, says demand is not slowing as much as predicted.
He talks about exports, ethanol and feed uses. His conclusion:
"Corn consumption is clearly slowing, but the pace may not yet be sufficiently slow to ration the available supplies. This suggests that, while higher prices are not likely needed, current price levels will be maintained a while longer."
10-30-2012 10:18 PM
So are you going to hold all your corn for that big surge to ration it?
Talked to a person today who said he thought it had a chance to go higher but he planned on selling more with any little rise because as he said the prices are already so good he hates to miss out.
He did say he would hld a little back so IF it really took off he would have 1 sale to talk about at the coffee shop.
So far I have bragging rights for a sale I made in August which got me just over $300/tonne.
No one has said they beat me yet.
Price today is $268 Canadian.
I do not tell them how much I have left to sell,......yet.
10-30-2012 10:24 PM
I sold a load for $8.73/bushel. I don't know how much is in your tonne. Am I close?
Good didn't say there would be a surge - he said the price should hold up for a while. Big difference.
10-31-2012 12:45 AM
Goode's conclusions are very carefully worded, even very interestingly worded. This is a warning regarding supplies.
As for COF. Last year cattle were piled into feedyards, by the numbers. Some expected fewer but there were more. So, this year's numbers as a percentage drop from last year aren't the complete story, though we are talking only a few percent difference ihn the end, at most. Ethanol is another story but fuel is still expensive. Things like the hurricane may well put a slight dent in that but a month or two will probably tell the story.
I think exports of corn are likely to increase in the future, not decrease. My thinking is that the easy feed is being cleaned up now but some countries will ultimately have to turn to imports of feed - and wheat. I think soy will bew under heavy pressure too if S America can't demonstrate early on - and that isn't too far away - that they are on track for a huge harvest.