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01-24-2014 12:55 PM - edited 01-24-2014 02:20 PM
25% of the grain belt is dry to droughty.
Many droughts go for several years with maybe one decent one in the middle. Last year might have been that one for the eastern 2/3 of the grain belt.
we are in climate change, This world always has been and will be into the long future reguardless of what we do or do not do.
We have been in a "global warming" phase for 10,000+ years since the last glacier period.
My feeling is that we just happened along at an interlude time between events that alowed us to believe this was "normal" , guess what.... WRONG
intertwines with #2, do not get too sure Canada and the nothern tier of the US is the new bread basket. Have you noticed anything different this year? Getting closer to the winters of yesteryear. August frosts and hard freezes are NOT out of the picture just cause they haven't happend for a few years.
Still a lot of crop out in the fields in some of those row crop areas in Canada.
What do you think the concenquences of a few years of more normal to early freezes will do to the expected supplies and infrastructure in those areas.
Our current crop of polititions are doing all things in their power to destroy all small private enterprise ... this includes farming. Is being done with rules, regs, taxation, and selective inforcement of laws.
Best one that will effect most farmers here is the new depriecation rules. As they are now, off the top straight line deprieciation will be $25,000 AND any purchase over $500 will need to be deprieciated. This includes repairs.
How many parts and repair bills total more than $500? Buy a tire lately?
A tax money grab is in effect to pay for the lack of fiscal responsibility.
01-24-2014 03:23 PM
Well, Barring an insurance claim accident or a warranty claim....most guys can probably hold most any repair under $ 500.00. Guess if I have a $ 1,000.00 repair, I'll simply have John Deere fix it in two phases.....Fix $ 500 worth, pay for that, and then have them finish the job....sort of like having brakes replaced two at a time.
Most guys have enough updated equipment that they could farm for the next 10 years without any new purchases. If you think it's bad being a farmer staring down $ 3.00 - 4.00 corn.....imagine a new equipment dealer staring at a lot of late model combines, tillage and planting tools, and tractors......lmao. Like they say...."That is gonna leave a mark?" Most JD and Case IH dealerships around here look like one of those Chinese Ghost Cities.
01-26-2014 10:57 AM
Leasing is the best.... No farm sale, no assets, just pay for someone else's equipment and living. No wealth accumulation.
Of course if the farm sale in SW Missiouri was any indication, owning did not work out so good either.
JD 9600 with 4051 engine hours,2742 seperator hours,new concave and cylinder bars
and new right drive tire got a bid of $21,000 before combining it with the header
930F header with cart got a bid of $2800 before putting it together with the combine..
They then put the two together and got a combined bid of $25,000 and the owner wouldnt let it go..
JD 6105D with H260 loader,192 hours,bucket had never been used sold for $53,000..
These Mega dealers with overhead out the wazzoo have to have finance managers sending out red flagged warmings to the powers that be???
Titan machine with their 100 AND some outlets and the need to sell 300milion this first quarter might be sweating just a little (CNH dealer, biggest in the country)?
The local Deere dealer with 9 stores just combined with another dealership with a simular # and now a new name with new big buildings going up might just have their timing just a little off?
01-26-2014 04:54 PM - edited 01-26-2014 04:59 PM
They are in the "denial" stage. By summer it will be the "Prayer" stage and fall will bring the "hope" stage
Then they will need a case of poo perie