11-15-2012 10:33 AM
For sure,your fathers market was not nearly as volatile was calm in comparison as far as volatility's ever when the market realized (in his day) shortages prices were way more favorable than they are today.It seems producers now days are supposed to be happy with a governor on the price spigot for the commodities they are producing.Do the math on the price of each of the grains from the 70s to now.$6.50 wheat in comparison for a current high would be about $25.00 So what is so special about any of the grain prices especially when cost of production is figured.(Oh,I forgot,we are all supposed to be farming thousands rather than hundreds of acres to make the income difference,no wander there is a high level of unemployment.)
11-15-2012 10:48 AM
It's not just farming. A friend of mine's dad used to work at the new holland plant there in Grand Island, NE before he retired. If you go back to the 70's, everything was done by hand. Today, most of it is done by machine. Technology has displaced a huge quantity of workers. This is one of the reasons shovel ready jobs won't fix the economy or fix the unemployment because those jobs have been replaced by machines. One guy in a machine can more than likely do considerable more work in a day than 50 people back then could with a shovel.
The size of machinery up in these parts is quite a bit larger than those down in SA. The reason is because up here labor is expensive, thus a larger machine cuts down on labor cost. Down there, labor is relatively cheap so they can run more smaller machines via cheap labor. I vaguely remember yields from the 70's, but I know our yields today are considerably higher. The only exception would be wheat. For some reason, it doesn't seem to deviate much.
11-15-2012 11:05 AM
Your point is well-spoken and well-taken. In Brazil, the government banned human labor for harvesting sugarcane, due to its inhumane conditions. The whole sugarcane industry is expected to mechanize. This is a big problem, as many towns rely on those jobs. It will put a lot of people out of work there.
11-15-2012 11:44 AM
Gored & Mike,
Touching on the reason I think this is not such a good time for farming(as we know it) and good prices are making it worse. If we had $20 corn, it would do more to accelerate the technology boom in farmnig by financing change faster.
These are wonderful times for grain producers--------and terrible times for grain producers.
This has been on my mind since the meeting in Clear Lake. Just couldn't and can't find words as good as Gored.
11-15-2012 12:54 PM
11-15-2012 12:55 PM
A lot of the reason for the rapid increase in mechanization is labor cost. But I keep hearing that people can't find labor for some jobs at any price. Even larger machinery is not a cure all. Just ask a custom harvester how hard it is to find help.
11-15-2012 02:09 PM
Bad times are the small or beginning farms that cannot afford the technology and its accellerated costs. Productivity is increasing for some not all. The number of farms producing the grain will diminishing as much as it ever has in the last 50yrs. High prices are not changing that. For the small to mid sized farm that is trying to grow, They are more likely than 5 years ago to not be able to compete at rent, land purchase, or newer technology equipment.
Neighbor is going through it now. Land owners he farms for(for over 40 years) want to sell land to him. He is only dry land and cannot afford to pay the present appraised value. He will loose acres when it sells and helplessly watch. And Grain prices are pushing the land prices.
just one example.
11-15-2012 03:58 PM
Agree and disagree,times seem to be exelent for the grain producer.I would agree that grains have a significant chance to propel higher in the comming month,all indicaters are in a positive spin.As far as 1974-1975 wheat had way more buying power per acre than it does today at twice the money.We raised 145 bu wheat then,and that level is hard to beat today.We have a more consistant ability to produce 132bu than we did then,but huge #s like 145 were possible then!(dryland)
11-15-2012 11:23 PM