08-10-2012 08:27 AM
I would think that any price decline would be met with buying by end users. (Unless they have closed their doors of course.) The supply of corn will not grow from this level. Lower prices from here on out will not ration demand but will stimulate it. Thoughts?
08-10-2012 10:28 AM
I AM somewhat unsure what to think. For instance, the USDA calls for @ 123 bu for corn. On less acres. With a comfortable ending inventory.
Begs the question, what would have been the ending inventory if the original forecast had been about right ?????
I still believe demand destruction will not be that great.
08-10-2012 12:24 PM
The last couple of years have tought us 650 million of corn is basically running out, so it looks too me that the USDA is telling us we are pretty much going to take it down to pipeline and no matter what production is the carryover will be no smaller then this. Demand will have to be the bu we start with minus at the least 500 mbu unless we import. If their yield is right there demand number cant get anybigger its just a question of where the cuts happen.
08-10-2012 01:06 PM
". . . where the cuts happen" , when, and at what price.
"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
08-10-2012 01:58 PM
I would agree the when and at what price will probaly dictate where the cuts come from. I wish I knew the answer to these questions but will probably be a moving target for the next 12 months.
08-11-2012 01:20 AM
I'm thinking I agree with these assessments. Report days are often contrarian to downright weird.
I'm thinking more like a lull before the storm. I've already advocated that is will take some time to work out this year's market.