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Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,585
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Now that everyone is on the same page with this corn crop........

I would think that any price decline would be met with buying by end users.  (Unless they have closed their doors of course.) The supply of corn will not grow from this level.  Lower prices from here on out will not ration demand but will stimulate it.     Thoughts?

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Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 407
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
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Re: Now that everyone is on the same page with this corn crop........

Corn needs to go to nine and stay there for a long period to get that much demand destruction that the USDA has for us.
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,192
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Now that everyone is on the same page with this corn crop........

I AM somewhat unsure what to think. For instance, the USDA calls for @ 123 bu for corn. On less acres. With a comfortable ending inventory. 

 

Begs the question, what would have been the ending inventory if the original forecast had been about right  ????? 

 

I still believe demand destruction will not be that great.

Veteran Contributor
ag678
Posts: 78
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Now that everyone is on the same page with this corn crop........

The last couple of years have tought us 650 million of corn is basically running out, so it looks too me that the USDA is telling us we are pretty much going to take it down to pipeline and no matter what production is the carryover will be no smaller then this.  Demand will have to be the bu we start with minus at the least 500 mbu unless we import.  If their yield is right there demand number cant get anybigger its just a question of where the cuts happen.

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WCMO
Posts: 481
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Now that everyone is on the same page with this corn crop........

". . . where the cuts happen" , when, and at what price.

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Veteran Contributor
ag678
Posts: 78
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Now that everyone is on the same page with this corn crop........

I would agree the when and at what price will probaly dictate where the cuts come from.  I wish I knew the answer to these questions but will probably be a moving target for the next 12 months.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,192
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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This is not a stable situation

I'm thinking I agree with these assessments. Report days are often contrarian to downright weird. 

 

I'm thinking more like a lull before the storm. I've already advocated that is will take some time to work out this year's market.