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04-19-2012 07:14 AM
Wow. This is good.
Yes. You are correct. I have never planted 90 day corn.
I am a trader. Not a farmer. My family owns a farm but 24 years in the financial futures business says I like trading.
And, quiet honestly, in an attempt to find a reason for such a large move in the corn spread market I asked the around the CME Group floors for ANY explanation. I am sure most would agree that the gyrations have been unprecedented and at a minimum intriguing.
What was mostly heard was the sound of crickets. One large well respected commercial desk offered up the 90 day corn 'excuse'. Thought it would be interesting to the crowd to hear what the chatter was in the building. In all my years in the business I would never have imagined the response that information elicited. That story was doing the rounds here yesterday.
At the very least, for those that expressed an overwhelming feeling that the story is wrong, I gave you all the perfect chance to make a quick 12 cents overnight. I am sure you took advantage of that.
I apologize for any offense taken and will stay away from playing the role of 'messenger' in the future.
04-19-2012 07:28 AM
Nahhh, don't sweat it SS. Go ahead and tell us the gossip. We can discount it or believe it. What may have been behind the 90 day comment is by planting a month early, full season corn would hit the market at the same time as 90 day corn planted at the normal May 1-5 date. The problem is I don't think any of that early corn has emerged yet, so it isn't taking in any degree days of sunlight yet.
BTW, why the strong up in the overnights? Any smoke there?
04-19-2012 07:28 AM
Hey Scott great video seemed a plausible scenario to me. I still thinkit is all about the dollar and the currency wars. BUt something funny is right. Look at this morning corn up dollar higher? Wierd!
BTW I still think that vest is awesome!
04-19-2012 08:03 AM
Scott, There are lots of us who are reglar readers and appreciate the comments that you and Mike pass on.
To briefly address the 90 day corn issue, it is exactly what I would have planted here in NW IA if I had gone early. The only reason to risk planting late March, early April for me would have been to catch the premium price that will most likely exist in late August/early September and I would have gone with an early corn to make sure it was some of the first out of the field thus caputring the most premium. I ended up not doing any of the ultra early planting because seed corn is in such short supply here and if a replant situation did arise it could have been ugly.
04-19-2012 08:34 AM
Keep reporting. I think it is important for us farmers to hear what the floor is thinking from time to time. We all realize it certainly is not the "farmers viewpoint", but enlightening just the same.
04-19-2012 08:47 AM
Bought seed in November, took delivery in January, have not planted anything yet. Raining again this morning, cold nights and now wet conditions are not good for producing a good stand of corn. So I'll wait till next week and then I'll start planting my 102 day corn. I'll plant my earliest variety last, that is a 96 day. I hope a lot of farmers plant 90 day corn and deliver it early since that would take away corn from the market next spring when I will be selling my corn. Thanks for the info about the rumors in Chicago since the market always sets prices based on perception even if it is only rumors and manipulated reports, and not facts. And by the way, I'll let you know how much corn I have left on the farm when the market offers a price I am willing to sell it for.
04-19-2012 09:03 AM
04-19-2012 10:21 AM
The most concerning thing to me going forward is how everything seems about a month or so ahead of a year ago. Take fuel prices for instance. Last year, it peaked around the middle of May. While we don't know if it's peaked or not, it could very well be that it peaked a good month or so ahead of last year or normal. Then, we look at the weather. While some may have the opportunity to plant a month early, I'm beginning to wonder if we all shouldn't be as our first freeze this fall may very well come a month early. The winter was one of the warmest on record which leads me to believe we may very well pay for it either this summer with record heat or next winter with record cold.
04-19-2012 10:59 AM
Everyone else is going to use their grain dryer too if there is enough premium to justify it. Stretching your maturity means that the guys who planted an early number will have filled the demand before your later corn black layers. If the premium is $1.50-$2.00 like I expect it to be, you can give up a considerable amount of yield and still make more money than the guy who wanted to maximize his bushels rather than maximize his profit.