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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 907
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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OptionEye....April 29th

Good morning.

 

So I guess we are in a weather market. Chatter doing the rounds about wet and cold...but just remember, I can't recall a year the US didn't plant corn.

 

That being said, we were set to get a serious start on our farm but things may have changed. Yesterday's overnight price action tells us that the weather change will be disruptive.

 

Economic numbers out this morning continue to show that things may be slowing just a tad. Stock market does not care. Up, up and away.

 

Gold up again at $1470..Let's see is we can get to $1500 this week. Oil at $93.24 up .24 cents. And my favorite, the 10 year yield, telling us that everything is not OK with a yield of 1.65%. Can we break 1.50%. The German 2 year rate went negative today.

 

 

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

Yes Scott..... We always do plant corn.... But from my perspective.....Here is what we do know.... We use approx 1 bil bu of corn a month...... We are expecting carryout's to be 600 to a bil (depends on who ya listen to)..... We will have every little if any corn ready before early sept and now looking like middle to late sept..... The market has  grown very comfortable with making this old crop transition to new work very well on paper..... Well see now as to how well it works in reality.......p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 907
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

I totally agree. This market has been WAY TOO complacent.

 

It has perplexed a lot of us for some time now.

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Re: OptionEye....April 29th

MHO..... Fund $$$ has been selling and even trying the short side of this corn and you have the commercials buying from them in general on the board..... Unless I missed something those funds only have "PAPER" bu not real bu's..... It appears to me that the investment crowed is and has been listening to all of the so called grain analyst that keep telling us (and them)  that we have plenty of grain and the world demand has all gone away...... I think that being short this market with out the "Real" bu could be a little dicey........ p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,585
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

[ Edited ]

With many of the longs out of the market, just how high and how fast can this market go up?

 

I would have to think that those with old crop corn and beans left would be sellers at $7 and $15 respectively.....Thoughts?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,981
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

[ Edited ]

Rt: your kidding right?

 

It is APRIL 29th and the 10 day forecast is not conducive to planting or emergence. Corn is right now standing @ $7.08 cash. (+28) My last sales were @ $7.70+ . 

Last I checked other than SA where are the hog and poultry guys going to get their feed from in July, Aug, and now Sept? Maybe let them eat USDFA numbers on a computer printout/forecast?

 

Somebody better have some hid out in the country, There is some that still are holding corn and beans but they are few and far between for this time of year. They have waited this long what's another 30/60 days?

 

Today is the first day of the fundamentals taking charge instead of the funnymentals.

 

RayJ could you check in here?

 

Right now as I type this every acre of my intended corn acreage is is pristine planting condition and the planter still has the bean discs in it from last year. I am not planting into a week to 10 days or rain and cold drizzle forecasted for the first 10days of May the end of April. Highs in the 40's and low 50's, lows that will make a frosty morning several mornings at the end of the week. I do not need a 20 to 40% stand reduction on my flat land and washouts on the sloping ground. Best part is that it would probably turn to concrete as bonus points.

 

The experts* are clueless.

 

 

 

* definition of an "expert"

"ex" is a has been, as in past tense,

"pert" (pronounced spurt) = drip under pressure

 

All put together is ... A has been drip under pressure... expert

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
lsc76cat
Posts: 234
Registered: ‎08-31-2012
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

Had a chance to do an entirely unscientific survey at the Pioneer Power Swap Meet near Le Sueur, MN  Saturday.

Talked to 11 farmers from various locations in the midwest.  Very few (2) knew of corn still sitting in bins unsold.

Another note - still snow in the woods on the north side of the show grounds and only trees budding were a couple boxelders.

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; Genius will not; Education will not. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan "Press On" has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race." Calvin Coolidge
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,192
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

I'll predict the economy will slow more. It will go to zero. It may contract slightly - in which case equities might not be fun for awhile and we'll witness a resurgence of low yielding paper as a strategy to eke ahead with cash that can't be used in an consumer oriented economy where the consumer is tapped out and at a disadvantage (although farmers will still do well as they are more or less welfare princesses more or less exempt from sequestration).

 

The simple dynamic that is likely to determine an economic slowdown is furloughs and other cuts (like defense, etc) that will reduce economic activity. No mystery here. This going to go on for along time with the deliberate freeze on Congressional action and responsible behavior. A sensitive economy is going to be hurt by reduced activity. It can't be otherwise and has/is being proven everywhere else this has happened. The only mystery is there are people who maintain the economy should bounce back more quickly under this kind of policy. That's simply delusional by those who don't need reason to explain things. Timing is everything when an economy is teetering. This is bad timing.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,981
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

[ Edited ]

Just a thought....what happens if it stays this way till June?  Then We hit the PP date. Has happened before.

 

Wonder what the USDFA will print for a # then?

 

My opinion is that we are in the 7th inning stretch.  Never seen a fireworks display like we are having right now without a report. The fireworks started early. Oh darn:smileyhappy:

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,585
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: OptionEye....April 29th

Hobby,   Cash corn here in NW Ohio is not yet $7 even with this morning's rally........Maybe I should've said $8 or $9.   But I am about as far from an expert as you can get......:smileyhappy:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"