04-09-2013 06:54 AM
Good day all..
Front month corn has a bit of a bid...soybeans a little lower as is wheat.
Gold still hanging on to the $1575ish level trading at around $1571 which is down around $1.70. Stocks are a little firmer and the 10 year is 1.76%.
The world has not really changed that much overnight. Wall Street has done an about face with Ron Johnson the ex CEO of JCPenny. He is out and the old guy is back in.
Grains are going to consolidate today ahead of tomorrow's report. I guess we should start to get nervous about getting the grain in the ground...cold and wet. Ugh.
Still a lot of blood left on the trading floor after last weeks numbers. The acreage number was the focus of most traders and the stocks number really caught them off guard.
04-09-2013 07:09 AM
Regarding the bloodletting on the floor, due to that vicious USDA Report late last month, I'm noticing some slight difference in Marketing Talk traffic. It's not the amount of traffic. We're up. We're way up, actually. But, if you look real close, you don't see some folks frequenting the Marketing Talk 'coffee shop', or at least they have chosen to lurk and not to be vocal. It's interesting how some reports can produce a "hushhhhhhhh!"
04-09-2013 07:15 AM
I think that really helps to explain the shocker last week.
While moves like this are usually rough to handle, the way that the surprise hit is the real story. Most floor guys were really focused on the acres, not the stocks.
Like I said, in football it's called a reverse. In baseball it's called a back door slider. Either way, it surprised and hurt.
On another note, the rally in the stocks yesterday was attributed to the QE taking place in Japan. This story has a long way to run yet.
04-09-2013 07:34 AM
Scott..... IMO the funds were what I call "Farmerized" last week........ The funds were massive sellers and the commercials were massive buyers...... Commercials have done that for yrs to farmers ....... Shake the trees and pick up what is left over..... Now don't get me wrong..... Im not saying that any one company did this but collectively as a group have been good at waiting out either the farmers or the speculators ...... Now the BIG questions is and will be..... The bu that the commercials bought were they real bu or just paper bu?......p-oed
04-09-2013 10:28 AM
Love that analogy p-oed,
"shaking the trees" I've heard it said a lot of physical movement before report---not so much after.
commercials took more possesion of corn through buying contracts -- forgive my ignorance here, but what's beneath your question about real or paper?...........are you asking 'what they will do with their possesion?'........like sell it back later if it is real or paper.
04-09-2013 11:13 AM
C-X....... What I am referring to is for one thing..... After the USDA said that there were all of those "EXTRA" bu of corn out there.... Why would the commercials be sooooo eager to buy......Yes the price did go down a buck..... But after all there was a huge amt of corn found that was thought to not be there?...... Why buy now?.....
When the commercials bought that corn all they have really done is set the futures price..... They have not got any of the corn bought..... IF (and a big if) the corn is out there as they (USDA) say.... Then most likely they will not have any trouble getting a hold of the corn at some point...... My guess is the commercials don't fully believe the USDA and are covering there butts at these much lower prices and I am of the opinion that they will want to take all of the corn that the shorts in Chicago have (maybe have....:~)...... Watch the may- July spread for clues as we get closer to deliveries.......p-oed
04-10-2013 05:40 AM
bk...... I do not know as to what the spreads will do...... I think that the spreads will give us clues as to if there is as much corn around as the USDA says...... p-oed