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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 939
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

OptionEye.....Aug 1

Good morning.

 

I will be sitting in for Marketeye this week as he continues to build his empire and assert his wide ranging influence.

 

Is it Howie Mandell, Monty Hall or Bob Barker?

 

Deal or No Deal, Let's Make a Deal or The Price is Right.

 

The vote is expected to get through today but falls short of rating agency expectations. The markets have taken it as good news. I feel as thought it's more of the same.

 

As of 6:25......

 

Corn is 9 to 10 higher.

Beans are 13 to 15 better

Wheat is 14 to 17 better.

The grains love the Washington news as well as a sprinkling of hot weather.

 

Gold has backed off of its default threat highs by about 10 bucks.

Stock futures are sharply higher.

Crude is about $1.30 higher.

 

Lets see if we can hang on to these gains.

 

One thing is for sure, the economy hasn't changed overnight.

 

Scott

Community Manager
John_Walter
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Marketeye

Scott: Thanks much for filling in for Mike this week. It could be a rather historic stretch, no? Here we're making some calls this morning to get a handle on how the debt deal might affect agriculture.  And, I'm sure you'll be taking the pulse on all of that, too.

 

Anyway, we're honored to have you at the Marketeye helm this week.

 

I'm sure the folks here will have some input for you along the way.

 

-- John Walter

Senior Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,527
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Re: Marketeye

A newsletter I got this morning talked about seasonal expectations and how some strategies apply.  The last few years have caused me to get more conservative in mraketing, and that is probably bad, but it feels better to go broke by degrees than all at once.

It looks like we will have a long time to try to get our mind around grain marketing.  There is likely to continue to be a squeeze play between input costs, regulations and demand.  Weather seems in a changeable mood.  There is  a lot of money out there, but one wonders if it is any good?

On reflection, it would have been very surprising if any huge change one way or the other had come out of this quandry.  Future changes will likely be a gruesome and agonizing to conclude.

I am going to market in a "close to the vest" mode for the coming year.   

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Marketeye

Scott..... Glad that you are on board this week....... Historically when Mike is off we have some of our biggest moves of the year....... I call it the "Marketeye effect"  :smileyvery-happy:.......p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 939
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 1

Well, I am not sure but believe that this new 'debt deal' will quickly be overshadowed by the economic strength figures (Non Farm on Friday), the weather and the imminent debt downgrade. At least while Maketeye is gone we will have something to talk about!

 

Scott

Veteran Contributor
frankne
Posts: 84
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Aug 1

Seems the grains are holding there own here with outsides neg.Dollar up and crude 3 off high.Sold mar corn got a stop at 705, thought i might as well tell where it is, no since the traders guessing.lol

Community Manager
John_Walter
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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'Betting line' on corn & beans?

[ Edited ]

Scott and all: I see that FCStone is set to release its corn and soybean production forecasts tomorrow, with Informa coming later in the week with its projections.  And a brokerage company by the name of A/C Trading today cut its corn yield forecast to 150 bushels/acre from 152.7 bushels.

 

 How big of deal are these private estimates, do you think?

 

Any thoughts on an over/under "betting line" on corn and soybean yields? Anyone?

 

John

 

 

Veteran Contributor
dafeeder
Posts: 107
Registered: ‎01-24-2011
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Re: 'Betting line' on corn & beans?

Take the average GUESS of all of the brokerages and they will more than likely be closer then the USDA.

Veteran Contributor
viperkev
Posts: 86
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: 'Betting line' on corn & beans?

John.....I think these guys are dead on and actual yields will have more potential to drop. I will take a wild stab and say high 140's is more realistic with the hot July. With 2010 at 152.7 or so even if the western corn belt is better then 2010 the overall average will be lower. USDA will have to come around eventually. The August 11th report should start to show that. The only question in my mind, will the outside markets spoil some of this bullishness with the equity markets in some big trouble today with the manufacturing report that was released. The trade will probably ignore the private estimates until the smart guys at USDA ever drop their estimates.

 

Kevin

Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 939
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 1

As of 12:00 noon, markets are stuck in a range....great performance across the board bucking the dollar strength.

 

Corn is up 10 cents, wheat unchanged and beans up 5 cents.

 

Stocks taking a beating giving back all of the overnight euphoria.

 

Talk on the floor is for a 2% decline tonight with the crowd hoping that we get a story out of any of this....I think we will have to wait until August 11th.