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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 958
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

OptionEye.....Aug 15th

Good morning.

 

Corn up 2, beans up 5 and wheat up 2.

 

There you have it. In the scheme of things it's all noise and it is easy to get caught up in these day to day moves and easier to get caught up in the minute by minute moves when statistically they are not important. What we need to worry about is where are we going to be in the future.

 

I still think that the crop will get bigger. The USDA gave pause for concern and initially I think that the trade has ignored it. Yes, cooler weather is on us but statistically we cannot corralate a cool August with an early frost. We can with September but not August. Soybeans have been rallying on dry weather and there are still risks there for sure.

 

We are in August which is quiet and until after Labor Day we will be in this mode.

 

The economy is still on shaky ground. Yesterday's stocks were sold down triple digits. They will be lower again today. The talk of taper still on everyone's mind. I am alone in the camp that says the FED continues down this path longer than anyone thinks. 65% of economists believe that the FED will cut back on asset purchases next month. So far I don't believe the numbers prove that out.

 

More economic figures again today but as I sit here right now we are no better off than we were last month at this time. Nothing is getting better very fast.

 

Oil is up .66 to $107.51. Gold is up $1.40 to $1337.54.

 

The 10 year moving up to 2.75%. Will they push the FED? We shall see.

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 329
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

Not only is the dry weather a risk to soys, but also corn the crop is late the last progress report showed lessthan half the corn was in the dough stage moisture requirements are quite high still. Look at the last 30day precip maps and see if you think the crop is getting bigger.

Senior Contributor
k-289
Posts: 1,830
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

The 10 year at 2.75 although the local bank offers less than 0.50 and informs users the rate on borrowing is increasing  - interesting   

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

Looks like all those $4.00 options could expire worthless. The market is way behind on what's going on in a lot of the Midwest. IL and IN aren't the entire corn producing market. And I don't think too many are worried about a frost this month. A frost next month, anytime, could still be devastating to yields. And I'm not so sure that even a frost is needed. I don't think the yield has been there all along. You all know my reasons. Nothing there has changed. Only the lack of moisture to finish out this crop will bring the problems with planting to the front and center. And that will happen the next ten days with virtually no precip in the Midwest and a return to warmer weather, at least in the WCB.

Jen
Veteran Contributor
aaron-neill
Posts: 68
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

Scott this crop isn't getting bigger, keep sticking your head in the sand....

@cfarms76
Advisor
time:thetippingpoint
Posts: 590
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

So, Scott, I'll be a little more respectful, all though you never answer a good question, but I'll try.

 

Why do you think the crop is getting bigger? Seriously, why do you say that. Enlighten those of us that are too close to the real dirt to understand. TIA

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

[ Edited ]

I was told that a local ethanol plant in my area has just received it's first rail shipment of corn to keep them going.  Not sure how much or where it came from.  It is August 15th and the corn is this area is just starting to dent.   It could be another 50 days or so before they begin receiving new corn.  

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 912
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

[ Edited ]

quick answer is everyone on the CBOT thinks it will get bigger and it is a self fulfilling prophecy.  It doesn't hurt that the garden spot is 50 miles around the CBOT and the traders don't travel out of the chicago area proper.  You will see many traders with shell shock on their faces when the results of this fall come to them.  Too many fund managers are going to need to find a new job after the market works against them.

Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,689
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

You mean you're one of "Them." Quit drinking the Kool-Aid

Advisor
time:thetippingpoint
Posts: 590
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 15th

So. I'll ask again Scott...."why do you think the crop is getting bigger?"

 

It is a fair question, asked with respect for your views. So, how about an answer.