08-15-2013 06:45 AM
Corn up 2, beans up 5 and wheat up 2.
There you have it. In the scheme of things it's all noise and it is easy to get caught up in these day to day moves and easier to get caught up in the minute by minute moves when statistically they are not important. What we need to worry about is where are we going to be in the future.
I still think that the crop will get bigger. The USDA gave pause for concern and initially I think that the trade has ignored it. Yes, cooler weather is on us but statistically we cannot corralate a cool August with an early frost. We can with September but not August. Soybeans have been rallying on dry weather and there are still risks there for sure.
We are in August which is quiet and until after Labor Day we will be in this mode.
The economy is still on shaky ground. Yesterday's stocks were sold down triple digits. They will be lower again today. The talk of taper still on everyone's mind. I am alone in the camp that says the FED continues down this path longer than anyone thinks. 65% of economists believe that the FED will cut back on asset purchases next month. So far I don't believe the numbers prove that out.
More economic figures again today but as I sit here right now we are no better off than we were last month at this time. Nothing is getting better very fast.
Oil is up .66 to $107.51. Gold is up $1.40 to $1337.54.
The 10 year moving up to 2.75%. Will they push the FED? We shall see.
08-15-2013 07:54 AM
Not only is the dry weather a risk to soys, but also corn the crop is late the last progress report showed lessthan half the corn was in the dough stage moisture requirements are quite high still. Look at the last 30day precip maps and see if you think the crop is getting bigger.
08-15-2013 08:36 AM
08-15-2013 09:06 AM
So, Scott, I'll be a little more respectful, all though you never answer a good question, but I'll try.
Why do you think the crop is getting bigger? Seriously, why do you say that. Enlighten those of us that are too close to the real dirt to understand. TIA
08-15-2013 09:10 AM - edited 08-15-2013 09:10 AM
I was told that a local ethanol plant in my area has just received it's first rail shipment of corn to keep them going. Not sure how much or where it came from. It is August 15th and the corn is this area is just starting to dent. It could be another 50 days or so before they begin receiving new corn.
08-15-2013 09:16 AM - edited 08-15-2013 09:17 AM
quick answer is everyone on the CBOT thinks it will get bigger and it is a self fulfilling prophecy. It doesn't hurt that the garden spot is 50 miles around the CBOT and the traders don't travel out of the chicago area proper. You will see many traders with shell shock on their faces when the results of this fall come to them. Too many fund managers are going to need to find a new job after the market works against them.