08-02-2011 06:56 AM
Crop condition numbers last night were not shocking and if anything slightly better than expected. The world woke up from the 'post deal' euphoria and sold off hard after economic figures again confirmed that our growth is slow at best. That mood will also hang over us today as we wait for final Senate approval.
As of 6:50 am....
Corn is 2 to 3 lower
Beans are flat to 2 better
Wheat is 1 to 2 lower
The dollar is stronger and stocks weaker.
Gold is higher with crude slightly lower.
The market seems to be trying to tell us we have a story but I think that we are going to need some hard evidence soon or we risk a sell off. The private forecasters continue to lower yields but ultimately that is the governments call.
08-02-2011 07:44 AM
We enter the dance of whether to go with data you believe is right but is contradicted by other data or of trading/hedging data you are pretty sure is wrong and will be corrected, in which case you have a timing issue.
What I'd like to see is more discussion by experts of just what makes up various data sets so that we have a better rationale for comparing them. Maybe they aren't as contradictory as they seem on the surface, or maybe they're actually more in disagreement that we think.
I suppose the real experts and pros already do this and I'm the only one in the dark.
08-02-2011 07:46 AM
Many private forcasters were correct last year. With the acreage number AND crop conditions as a moving target, the USDA can come up with any number they want.
08-02-2011 08:32 AM
08-02-2011 09:21 AM - edited 08-02-2011 09:22 AM
Want to see Ohio's crop go back to "really crappy"? Get a frost about the 23rd of September....(2 weeks earlier than normal) and see how much corn comes off with 45 lb. test weight. I am amazed at the progress our corn has made that was planted June 3. But I am going to say..the pollination is 3-4 weeks behind...and we have had a couple rains lots of other guys haven't. We'll see how "good to excellent" the yields are this fall with these pollination temperatures too...geez, it's supposed to be 98 here today...and the silks have just recently started showing...
08-02-2011 12:05 PM
Corn spooked on private yield estimates around 150. Loads of call buyers and put sellers adding to the rally...With the report next week this will be happening on a daily basis as the guestimates continue to flow in...
Here are your noon prices
Dec Corn 706.5 up 21 cents
Nov Beans 1364 up 2 cents
Sep Wheat 689.5 up 13 cents..
Pretty hairy down here at the moment....
08-02-2011 12:34 PM
Corn and wheat have made impressive moves. I kept trying to buy December corn on a break after it crossed 690 but it wouldn't come down. Finally settled for 700, which as it turns out was pretty good timing.