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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 879
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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OptionEye.....Dec 19th

Good morning.

 

Hot and dry in South America. I'm sure you all knew that already but in the interest of being on top of things I have to state the obvious. Quiet holiday week markets are also difficult sells.

 

The outside world also seems 'comfy' with itself. Stocks, Oil and Gold all slightly better.

 

I am interested to see what the market does this week on any bad news with the lack of liquidity that is starting to emerge.

 

Weather in Chicago has been shockingly mild....waiting for the other shoe to drop.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,252
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

which shoe and what happens when its not the shoe you think it is..........

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ShelladyOptions
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

Great question(s)....if I knew I probably wouldn't have my big behind in this chair right now. I am very concerned about the macro picture and the EU. I know it seems remote but we are in some fairly tentative times...

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Mizzou_Tiger
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

IMO the only macro issue of consequence is the EU.........so tell us what a worst case/yet probable bearish outcome would be over there........frankly I am tired of hearing about it..........

 

does anyone else think demand is understated...........

 

if this were 2008 corn would have a $2 or $3 in front of it........it has a $6 now..........

 

grains have held in the face of a stronger dollar and macro BS............whats that say when they realize demand was understated, NA acres will not come out of thin air, SA still has to deal with weather and infastructure issues, etc...............

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jec22
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

[ Edited ]

MZ, the EU is so important in my opinion because of the domino affect.  The big banks have a lot of global government debt on the books and I would guess so do money market funds.  That is  all under capitalized.  If they actually have to come up with the cash to replace those assets, it can not be done.  (Well, maybe Ben can print that much)  So you would freeze the system, all that money that is in people's accounts would become like MFGlobal money, IOU and hope.  The affects of MF Global is still just starting to unfold.  When companies have to print the losses on their annual statements, change their business to make up the loss of cash, it will really start hitting the fan.  The global debt crisis will make MF Global look like a walk in the park if it happens.  I have not seen more debt solve a sinking ship drowning in debt, but that is what the world is trying to do in my opinion.  I hope Scott tells me I am way off base and there is a good way out of this cycle.

I still believe food will hold value over any other asset or goods. 

So. IA
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

I understand, but how probable......not sure its on the table but rather a game of chicken...
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Palouser
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

WWII is probably the best example of additional debt in  order to build non capital goods  (war material) that shocked the system into productivity. That and the G.I. Bill.

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jec22
Posts: 410
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

Pal, we have played the war card twice in the last ten years, how did that work out?

So. IA
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

The war thing doesn't work anymore........reason, no more spoils of war
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roarintiger1
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Re: OptionEye.....Dec 19th

FWIW,  demand is understated and production was overstated.   But traders gotta go with those USDA numbers don't they?

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