12-19-2011 08:22 AM
Hot and dry in South America. I'm sure you all knew that already but in the interest of being on top of things I have to state the obvious. Quiet holiday week markets are also difficult sells.
The outside world also seems 'comfy' with itself. Stocks, Oil and Gold all slightly better.
I am interested to see what the market does this week on any bad news with the lack of liquidity that is starting to emerge.
Weather in Chicago has been shockingly mild....waiting for the other shoe to drop.
12-19-2011 09:00 AM
Great question(s)....if I knew I probably wouldn't have my big behind in this chair right now. I am very concerned about the macro picture and the EU. I know it seems remote but we are in some fairly tentative times...
12-19-2011 09:50 AM
IMO the only macro issue of consequence is the EU.........so tell us what a worst case/yet probable bearish outcome would be over there........frankly I am tired of hearing about it..........
does anyone else think demand is understated...........
if this were 2008 corn would have a $2 or $3 in front of it........it has a $6 now..........
grains have held in the face of a stronger dollar and macro BS............whats that say when they realize demand was understated, NA acres will not come out of thin air, SA still has to deal with weather and infastructure issues, etc...............
12-19-2011 09:58 AM - edited 12-19-2011 10:02 AM
MZ, the EU is so important in my opinion because of the domino affect. The big banks have a lot of global government debt on the books and I would guess so do money market funds. That is all under capitalized. If they actually have to come up with the cash to replace those assets, it can not be done. (Well, maybe Ben can print that much) So you would freeze the system, all that money that is in people's accounts would become like MFGlobal money, IOU and hope. The affects of MF Global is still just starting to unfold. When companies have to print the losses on their annual statements, change their business to make up the loss of cash, it will really start hitting the fan. The global debt crisis will make MF Global look like a walk in the park if it happens. I have not seen more debt solve a sinking ship drowning in debt, but that is what the world is trying to do in my opinion. I hope Scott tells me I am way off base and there is a good way out of this cycle.
I still believe food will hold value over any other asset or goods.
12-19-2011 02:33 PM
FWIW, demand is understated and production was overstated. But traders gotta go with those USDA numbers don't they?