01-30-2012 06:07 AM
Lots of headlines over the weekend concerning the Greek debt and Iranian saber rattling.
This has led to a weaker Euro this morning, 10 year yields trading lower and more of the talking heads acting surprised that this is all happening again.
Stocks trading lower. Oil trading .25 cents lower. Dow futures are 64 lower. Corn and wheat are 5 to 6 cents lower. Beans are 11 to 12 cents lower. Gold also getting hit.
It continues to boggle my mind how we can come in on a Monday morning and act 'surprised' by the EU meltdown. It is a slow motion train wreck that will definitely crash.
01-30-2012 08:05 AM
Hey, Scott. Sounds like a lot of people are still watching the weather in S.A. as a market signal, too. Sure, they're getting rain in spots there the next few days, but at what point does that start to fade as a market factor when the realization settles in that rainfall after a certain point in the growing season won't do them much more good?
Here's an update from Commodity Weather Group LLC on the rainfall situation in Brazil and Argentina -- Looks like they could be moving back to a drier cycle in a couple of weeks:
Weekend showers did scatter into parts of N. & C. Buenos Aires, far S. Cordoba, and La Pampa, but most of the
Argentine rains will occur from tonight into the middle of the week. Another event arrives for the weekend, with
additional rain chances in the 6-15 day period. The frequent activity should help to keep moisture stress limited
(15% or less of corn/soy), helping to limit stress from highs that did reach 100° in the NW 1/3 of the belt yesterday
and will remain at least well into the 90s during the next 2 days and again in the 6-10 day for the north. In
Brazil, weekend showers in the north did cause some minor harvest interruptions, but activity was not very organized
in key areas of Mato Grosso. Scattered showers continue this week, but a 6-10 day break should help
to keep harvest worries from becoming severe. Dry patches linger in about 20% of Brazil right now, and limited
showers will allow southern Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul to see stress persist. Occasional showers
will be possible in Rio Grande do Sul, but there is a drier threat to the forecast in that area as well. Up to 1/4 of
corn/soy in Brazil will remain at risk for some lingering moisture stress and near to above normal temperatures.