01-30-2013 11:29 AM
Interesting reading all the excuses for a negative print in the GDP number. Blame it on the government spending. Blame it on the weather. Whatever. It is still a negative number and a big surprise to the economy.
Stocks won't go down unless the non farm number on Friday really stinks. If it comes in close to expectations the market will grind higher. I think the interesting trade will be in the interest rates. They could be the truth serum.
Grains are higher on weather down south. Argentina dry and Brazil wet.
I am very interested to see how this buy stocks cause the fed is here works out.
01-30-2013 12:09 PM - edited 01-30-2013 12:15 PM
Wait a minute! What happened to all that "rain makes grain" talk, and all those big yields coming out of Brazil and Argentina, and the big fall in prices when China opted out of its grain contracts with the U.S.? Now there is a fear for the South American Crop?
I think most of us have seen this movie before. China has problems with its great northern desert becoming more arid, transportation in Brazil that has little infrastructure is a joke, huge sugar and other crops have placed a bottleneck in shipping to their Favorite customer China, and the Argentines just never ever could get it together.
The REAL has been strengthening for the past week, but if fell a bit today, the dollar is almost 79 today and going down, the yen is being pushed lower, and China is threatening the FED and European Central Bank with consequences if they do not stop the printing presses. What are they really going to do, they hold all that bad US Paper, and would go belly up if their largest customer (the US) told them to go suck a cucumber. China is all hat and no cattle. So the race to the bottom continues.
The Russians all of a sudden have a wheat inventory problem, and not as good a crop as we were led to believe, and well we will not even talk about Australia which is burning up and the rabbits have grown immune and eating farmers out of house and home. It appears that Russia and Australia, may not be exporting as much wheat as thought earlier, and in the United States the major grain producing areas of Next Year Country and the Western Corn Belt have little subsoil moisture. The Missouri is dry, hell the Army Corps of Engineers are not releasing any water from the Dakota and Montana Reservoir's . . . screw the pallid sturgeon, the Mississippi is dry, all of the rivers in Iowa are not flowing, and most of the rivers in Nebraska are dry arroyos.
The great predictors, last week tell us we are going to have a record crop in the us and we will have $4 corn and $8 beans by fall. It is clear that these jokers sitting in the hallowed halls of higher learning are where they should be, because the have proven they "know nothing".
Misinforma, Unprofessional Farmer, and DTNitwits, continue to miss the boat, and are now in the same league as Larry, Moe, and Curley at USDA.
Gulke was throwing up all last Summer because of his corn crop on that little farm out in Illinois and after that episode he is obviously no longer a member of the "no guts . . . no glory" club. He was crying like a little girl last fall.
In my mind, the harvest, bin, and sell strategy has worked for 100 years in this country, and each year these nimrods actually think they have discovered a new way of marketing grain by relying upon their moldy charts and historical data for determining yields, prices and moisture in this country.
But I guess such advice is free so if one is dumb enough to follow it, then they deserve the expensive education they are receiving. I really want to see that 14,000,000,000 corn crop this fall. What a friggin Joke! Adios Amigos. John
01-30-2013 01:12 PM
Yes Faust, it seems like your harvest it, bin it, THEN sell it has worked well the last few years. I admit I was not totally agreeing with not selling any new crop in the late spring/early summer time period, but it worked out big-time this year. I almost sold alot of corn in the spring of 2012 for $5.50, now it is $7.50 at my local ethanol plant. If I didn't follow your advice, it would have cost me $200,000!!!!!
Faust, I owe you a 6 pack of beer for your advice last spring not to sell 2012 crop corn back in late spring of 2012 for just $5.50. Will put some of the $200,000 dollars in your new truck fund that I still owe you!!!!!
01-30-2013 01:38 PM - edited 01-30-2013 01:46 PM
And, don't forget MT in 2012 (delaying sales of 2011 crop in bin, and not pricing 2012 crop too early). Fundamentals do trump technicals. Demand markets have legs in the face of limited supply -- stocks-to-use ratio.
01-30-2013 02:16 PM - edited 01-30-2013 02:18 PM
...and being able to see the fundamentals and economics expressed in a chart is an amazing thing
WCMO - on the yield data - last time we had 3 consecutive lower yields was 1891-1894...was shocked at this discovery..................and there's more.
01-30-2013 02:19 PM
Yes, WCMO. We have a number of guys in NC Iowa that priced there 2012 corn too early and are now hauling $5.75 corn they contracted for during the early spring of 2012 for there 2012 corn crop. That's a $1.75 off the local ethanol plant bid today, $1.75* 200,000bu= $350,000 dollars. No wonder they are in a sour mood for pricing just a 1,000 acres of corn at 200bu. Then many didn't even get a 200bu yield because of the drought, more around 185bu/acre, that hurts even more. Yes, that is one bad thing about pricing 100% of your corn production too early in a drought driven market. A low price and then not even growing enough corn to fill your contracts, a double-whammy that makes it painful!!!!
01-30-2013 03:52 PM
Not me, but I know of a local guy that cash forward contracted early last year for 2012 harvest delivery of about half his corn @ $4.73. Turns out that he barely produced enough to fill his contract. Crop insurance didn't help much since all production on the claim is calculated at the harvest price for revenue policies. The best part of his corn crop was the difference between his guaranteed bushels and produced bushels -- in other words, the corn he didn't produce was definitely worth more that what he did produce. Happy not to be him.