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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 942
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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OptionEye.....July 15th

Good morning.

 

News reports out today apparently have us living in the Garden of Eden. The wires are full of better weather stories.

 

Corn is down around 8 cents. Wheat down 9 to 10 and soybeans holding in best at down 1 to 4 cents.

 

This week will still be weather focused as we get hotter and hotter here in Chicago.

 

Economically speaking we get some retail sales numbers this morning and we have Bernanke speaking later in the week. Stocks are up this morning on better economic news out of China which states that they are still growing at an amazing rate. That will or should be ultimately better of us here in the U.S.

 

Gold is down $7.00 to $1278 and oil is also down .80 cents to $105.10. I think both oil and gold will struggle to rally as we have no inflation to boost gold prices and this temporary spike in oil subsides. We can't afford higher oil prices for any sustained period of time.

 

The 10 year is hanging around 2.60% at 2.63%. That will probably be the truth serum that we need to watch in the coming months. The stock market will be manipulated but the bond market is telling us the truth.

 

 

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

I'm really tired of Bernanke and his "words of wisdom" almost as tired as I am of the weather men saying what wonderful weather we have.   It was 89 yesterday here where I live and the corn was rolling up tight.  

 

Bernanke has know idea what he is doing.   He is destroying the America that most of us grew up in.   We have matured in a country and the baby boomers are not in spending mood anymore.  What does this means to me?  I'm  in my mid 30's and no return on investment menas that it pushes me into working longer since my retirement accounts aren't growing any unless I place more principal in them.    If I work longer that way social security doesn't go broke.   

I guess Bernanke does know what he is,  I just think hes a nut with a few letters behind his name.   

 

The reason we don't have "inflation" is because inflation is a man made scenario,  and the only way we have inflation is if the man recognizes it.   

 

China's economy is just a puppet,  Its rediuculous the way the market is manipulated by a few words.  

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

This inflation thing!?!?! When I was a teenager back in the 60's and 70's, inflation was based on what people used and needed to live - housing, food, fuel, etc. Today's inflation figures are tied to - What? I can't tell you right off, but I think it's tied to some obscure manufacturing output (or is it input) figure. If inflation was figured they way it was when we were younger, it would probably be runaway - has been for a while. Personally, I think it's all part of a larger plan to pay China back at pennies on the dollar. And guess what - it's working.

Jen
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,301
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

No need to stab in the dark. The first page will inform you about what is in the CPI. The bottom of the page is relatively specific as to what's included in the 'bag of items' measured for inflation.

 

The next is an inflation calculator. Basically the same calculation used for years.

 

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/frequently-asked-questions-faqs/

 

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-...

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

Thanks Palouser - you don't see me comment on the economy very often. It's not one of my strengths, but I am willing to learn - I'm sure that a lot of others will benefit from the sites you've given us to ponder. Thanks!

Jen
Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

We can complain about helicopter Ben and his policies. We must remember, what congress does and what helicopter Ben does are seperate yet related. He has no control over congress and there only control over him would be to not approve his presidential appointment. It should be noted that the fed cheifs expertise is the economics of the great depresion. Looking back, alot of the free money came from the us treasury and congress.  So I think history might look favorably on what the fed chairman has done to keep the US in the leadership of the world. It could be alot different. There could be soup lines in every city with 40% unemployment. Things can always change and interest rates will change, but lets give our fed chairman some credit for averting an economic disaster. Look at the people we send to Washington. They can't even pass a farm bill

Senior Contributor
hanktbd
Posts: 246
Registered: ‎01-08-2013
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

This entire house of paper may yet come tumbling down, but without the Feds' easy money policies, we would almost certainly be reliving 1933 right now. I am not real happy with where this economy is, but I am sure it is a whole bunch better than 1933 was. Always remember that hate radio is bought and paid for by guys called inflation hawks with money in the 9, 10, or 11 figure columns who only want to draw interest rather than putting that money to work. Easy for them and screw the rest of us.

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

I can't find the article yet, but I read that they have the base formula but they move items in and out depending how they want it all to look on paper.   One time they removed the food end of it, the other time fuel. 

 

Similar to the DOW INDEX,  when the companies that where on there would bring the whole index down after the 2008, they kicked them off and place someone else on,  its just a game.   A game that the rules change without warning.  That is way they keep going on and on about risk management to the farmer and have been for the past 20 years or so.   We are in the industry that takes the most hits from this mad mans way of doing business.  The big wigs figured the guys that where smart enough to figure it all out will stay and the rest will leave.   

Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

  If you are in farming you have very high equity and very low interest rates. Make sure your interest rates are fixed rates.  You're right highyeilds everyone wants your profits or margin. Get prepared for the inevitable.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,301
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....July 15th

You're perception on 'moving things in and out' to make things look good on paper is not accurate.

 

There are different readings in terms of 'consumer inflation', 'core inflation' etc. that use different components to focus on different aspects. Fuel is left out of some readings because oil prices may reflect global issues rather than the domestic economy, etc. Just like 'nonfarm labor' is used to eliminate the seasonal shifts of agriculture.