07-16-2012 08:24 AM
Another day another 30 cents.
As the anecdotal evidence continues to mount I am trying my hardest not to get so bulled up that I can't see straight. We are lurching from one weather model to another and have a pivotal crop condition report this afternoon.
At what point in time does the weather not matter for corn and for beans? The questions being asked around the floor are 'does rain matter anymore for corn'? What will it do to beans? Imaginations are running wild.
The rest of the world continues its dance with mediocrity and loves keeping its head in the sand. Some are calling for negative yields in the near term. The US 10 year is 1.45% and on its way to 1.00%. There will come a day where we run out of QE and Twist waiting for real 'growth'. That is when we pay the piper.
07-16-2012 08:34 AM
Rain would really help the beans,but see nothing on the horizon. Corn help some but see alot of fields would not matter with 3 in tonight.I would guess we will be low 120s for US corn yield.
07-16-2012 08:40 AM
we are really sitting our selves up this year. With the Macro environment less then ideal and the crop productions/livestock sector going to struggle to see a profit this year, which will probably linger into next year as well. if the ag sector takes a blow will the rest of the economy be able to take it?
07-16-2012 09:17 AM
I think a rain in the northern cornbelt could still do a lot of good for the corn. But we are so dry in a lot of places that it would take big rains to do very much good. Also, this rain would just stop the freefall in yields for a short while. Its not going to make 150 bushel corn out of a 75 bushel corn crop. Also, there are no big rains forecasted. Heck, there aren't even small rain forecasted.
The areas in the northern cornbelt that are fried beyond any rain helping will rise everyday this week.
07-16-2012 11:35 AM
I'd love to be a fly on the wall to hear some frantic floor trader senarios. What happened to the 90 day corn that was going to be harvested early and crash the market?????? There's some 90 day corn out there but, not intentionally.
Macro economics and the situation in grains is now completely divorced if it was ever together (doubtful in my estimation). So much for inflation if we're leaning towards negative interest. Unfortunately inflation would be easier to deal with than deflation with no counter stimulus. Some are going to bounce between the two economic poles of inflation deflation with the idea the sky must fall with no room for a considered opinion of middle ground.