07-02-2012 07:45 AM
Don't know what to say here except for that we need to have some significant precip sneak into the forecast or things will be worse than most folks think.
Tonight's crop progress will be a HUGE influence on the rest of the week. I know the declines are pegged at 3 to 5% but I think it could be 10%. These last few weeks in 1988 were very big in so far as shaping the market up for a rally.
Outside markets are waking up from the EUphoria and Obamacare cocktails. Chinese PMI worsened and a strengthening yen has the Nikkei 225 on the defense.
The most important figures of the day come this afternoon with crop progress.
07-02-2012 10:56 AM
I`ll just throw 2¢ in about NCIA and try to be objective and not alarmist. The corn on good ground hasn`t rolled yet and if we recieved uncharacteristic timely rains through July we could be looking at record yields in some fields. "Gravel pit" fields are of course rolling, I`m told every 12hrs corn rolls before tassel deduct 1% and deduct 3% at tassel. Now, drainage ditches have grass growing in them, don`t know how far down you`d have to dig to get moisture, corn must have 5` roots to look this good. The concerning part is the Accuweather forecast couple 100º days and only a smattering of 4/100ths rains if you could call that rain for 25 days. Their previous month forecast had way more rain than we acually recieved. Southern Minnesota had more rain and their soils in many cases need it, ran up there this AM and corn was mostly rolling. I know if the midwest got a general 2" rain it would be limit down a couple days, but that would perhaps be a real gift horse buying opportunity for endusers. If Accuweather`s forecast isn`t wrong we will have to be hurting at the end of 25 days. I haven`t foreward sold any new corn and wouldn`t do so at any price(that`s not to say anyone else shouldn`t). I`m just saying we probably won`t have a disaster, but if we were...this is how one would start. My Great Uncle used to say "We always get rain just before it`s too late" I hope he`s right, but the Mayan calander does end in December
07-02-2012 01:13 PM
I have not pulled the trigger on any new crop corn or soybeans yet, and still have some 2011 grain to price. Got burned so badly with forward contracts years ago that now I am much more patient. Cash corn here is just six cents over what I sold most of the 2011 forward contracts at and I have lots of corn rolling its leaves. Doesn't seem like the 6,73 cash or 6.25 distant July is much to get excited over right now.
Now if you can come up with a $7,50 corn offer and $20 soybeans, I am listening.