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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 958
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

OptionEye......June 20th

Good morning.

 

I guess the drought started yesterday.

 

The rumour mills, weathermen and wrong footed speculators got the market going in a big way yesterday giving Dec corn a 20 cent push to the upside.

 

What a weird old world we live in.

 

The rally last year started on June 21st. That had a lot of weak shorts running for the hills. That added fuel to the 'big, big heat ridge' coming. Combine that with the whirlwind of electronic communication among traders and we had a perfect storm.

 

Things have settled back in this morning with Dec corn down 8, wheat down 11 and beans down 12.

 

It will be interesting to see if the panic has subsided.

 

In the equity/fixed income world we also had an earthquake. The FED sees a mildly better economy. Not sure where but we shall see. Equities got killed and are getting killed again. The bonds sold off in anticipation of higher rates. I think that this is WAY TOO premature and the economy is on a much shakier ground than people think.

 

 Gold getting crushed too down $44 to $1306. The 10 year is 2.44%, solidly through 2.25% and the dollar is much stronger this morning after the FED comments.

 

Nowhere to hide today. Fixed income, equities and commodities are all on the move.  

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

So.......the weather forecast was the only reason for the rally?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Frequent Contributor
lln50nwin
Posts: 44
Registered: ‎07-06-2010
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

I really dont understand you!  "You say things have settled down this morning corn down 8", like your pleased and happy about it. You should not be on any Ag sites way to negative all the time, especially about your political views in your commentary. Such a bear all the time no fun!

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,364
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

Take it easy on him, whether you like it or not his information is a huge asset to the farming world. Just because the daily news that is reported might not be friendly or beneficial to your operation doesn't mean it is any less important. It is called taking it in stride, some days are good and some aren't so good. Shelladay (probably butchered the spelling) doesn't make the news, he only decifers it and reports it to us as to how it could affect our operations.

Keep up the good work OptionEye.
Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 958
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

Settled back in means exactly that..another trading term for lower. I could use another synonym like easier, down, backed up, etc. I am not happy about lower prices. Just trying to give a snapshot of where the market is.

 

Settled down however means something totally different and I believe that is how you read my words. Settled down would be the opposite of things here in Chicago this morning. FED comments, weather reports and 1.5 million acres of unplanted corn have things a bit crazy.

 

And funnily enough, sometimes it's the smallest things that can ignite a market and whatever you want to make of the fact that we have some unplanted acres, a market leaning very short, hot and dry forecast as well as a calendar that says we began last year's rally at the same time, they were the catalysts yesterday.

 

And, for the record, I don't enjoy lower grain prices nor do I enjoy high grain prices. I enjoy FAIR grain prices.

 

Hopefully now I'm better understood.  


 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

Scott,  It sounds like you would make a real good baseball umpire......Thanks for all you do!

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

'Fair' prices are defined how? Curious as that is a term many don't favor when talking about the market.

Contributor
captianD
Posts: 23
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

Appretiate the information you present OptionEye.
What is a fair grain price given land cost, seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel and machinery?
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

captainD,  No one who matters would look at those items when determining what was a fair price.  End users, traders, and the folks at the USDA couldn't care less about the farmer's costs.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,826
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: OptionEye......June 20th

Scott,

With supplies across the grains where they are, how could we expect this summer to not be volatile.

 

The last two days confirms that ---------- I don't think it is the last market move we will see on limited reasons.

sw