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06-20-2013 07:10 AM
I guess the drought started yesterday.
The rumour mills, weathermen and wrong footed speculators got the market going in a big way yesterday giving Dec corn a 20 cent push to the upside.
What a weird old world we live in.
The rally last year started on June 21st. That had a lot of weak shorts running for the hills. That added fuel to the 'big, big heat ridge' coming. Combine that with the whirlwind of electronic communication among traders and we had a perfect storm.
Things have settled back in this morning with Dec corn down 8, wheat down 11 and beans down 12.
It will be interesting to see if the panic has subsided.
In the equity/fixed income world we also had an earthquake. The FED sees a mildly better economy. Not sure where but we shall see. Equities got killed and are getting killed again. The bonds sold off in anticipation of higher rates. I think that this is WAY TOO premature and the economy is on a much shakier ground than people think.
Gold getting crushed too down $44 to $1306. The 10 year is 2.44%, solidly through 2.25% and the dollar is much stronger this morning after the FED comments.
Nowhere to hide today. Fixed income, equities and commodities are all on the move.
06-20-2013 08:01 AM
I really dont understand you! "You say things have settled down this morning corn down 8", like your pleased and happy about it. You should not be on any Ag sites way to negative all the time, especially about your political views in your commentary. Such a bear all the time no fun!
06-20-2013 08:24 AM
Keep up the good work OptionEye.
06-20-2013 08:25 AM
Settled back in means exactly that..another trading term for lower. I could use another synonym like easier, down, backed up, etc. I am not happy about lower prices. Just trying to give a snapshot of where the market is.
Settled down however means something totally different and I believe that is how you read my words. Settled down would be the opposite of things here in Chicago this morning. FED comments, weather reports and 1.5 million acres of unplanted corn have things a bit crazy.
And funnily enough, sometimes it's the smallest things that can ignite a market and whatever you want to make of the fact that we have some unplanted acres, a market leaning very short, hot and dry forecast as well as a calendar that says we began last year's rally at the same time, they were the catalysts yesterday.
And, for the record, I don't enjoy lower grain prices nor do I enjoy high grain prices. I enjoy FAIR grain prices.
Hopefully now I'm better understood.
06-20-2013 11:20 AM
captainD, No one who matters would look at those items when determining what was a fair price. End users, traders, and the folks at the USDA couldn't care less about the farmer's costs.
06-20-2013 11:23 AM
With supplies across the grains where they are, how could we expect this summer to not be volatile.
The last two days confirms that ---------- I don't think it is the last market move we will see on limited reasons.