11-30-2011 09:48 AM
So money just got cheaper and we rallied hard off of that. Seems like a last ditch desperation play to avoid a meltdown. In any event I think that if this does not work I am not sure we have anymore arrows left in the quiver to sling at this thing.
Inflation is bad, but deflation is worse and driving rates to zero with a prevailing mentality that things will just get cheaper is a scary prospect if we do not start to see real sustainable growth. I take a page from the housing market here. Prices are low and rates are in the cellar, but people still aren't buying because things will get cheaper, right?
11-30-2011 03:13 PM
Story here on site today with Morgan Stanley saying corn prices likely will be pressured in the second half of next year, because of greater production in both South America and the U.S.
Bank sees tight corn fundamentals through the beginning of 2012 because of strong feed demand.
"However, they added that high prices are already eliciting production responses from Argentina, Brazil and the Ukraine, which has reduced the call on U.S. exports and is likely to curtail the country's production in 2012-13."
This sort of prediction ring true to you?
11-30-2011 04:43 PM
No, But it is what we are going to here over & over in 2012. It doesn't matter what we believe ----- if the funds and specs believe it there might be an argument for a flat year. The head & shoulders in corn is about in.
Very short crop is our higher reality, but lowering exports is easy with money policy.
Election year-----bad econ news will be controlled when possible.