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10-13-2011 08:49 AM
USDA ANNOUNCED 900,000 CORN TO CHINA - 292,100 CORN TO UNKNOWN - 110,000 SOYBEANS TO UNKNOWN
This will give us a small boost this morning.
Still hearing anecdotal and actual yield reductions and disappointments that is going to help build a floor here. Without going out on a limb I feel as though the lows are in.
Stocks trading a little lower..OTC Dec corn is 635 bid and offered at 637.
Heading to the floor. The last few days have been pretty hairy. Can't remember the last time I lost my voice.
10-13-2011 09:18 AM - edited 10-13-2011 09:19 AM
"Today's numbers do not justify yesterday's feeding frenzy"
"Still hearing anecdotal and actual yield reductions and disappointments that is going to help build a floor here. Without going out on a limb I feel as though the lows are in"
Its amazing really............apparently you believed the USDA when they said we have the acres and the yield.........and then when that pipe dream slowly faded they came out and said, don't worry demand is dead enough to keep things in check..........
we might dance around here for another 6 weeks and then we start the climb into planting............
EDIT: lows were put in on the 3rd................
10-13-2011 09:43 AM
I have found that butting heads with someone about opinions on the market only leads to my being less able to change my own if the facts begin to indicate it.
10-13-2011 09:54 AM - edited 10-13-2011 09:58 AM
quit butting heads with the bulls...........you might have been able to sell some corn this summer for $8 spot like some I know............
10-13-2011 10:02 AM
Let me clarify.
I didn't say that you are wrong or that you need to change your opinion.
I said that getting in a pssing match about your opinion will not serve you well in the long run.
There will come a time to change your opnion and the emotional attachment that goes with defending it will merely get in the way.
10-13-2011 10:17 AM
FWIW, I believe that $8 corn was a function of extreme "risk on" behavior in the All One Market more than it was any representation of fundamental value. Corn topped, roughly, with crude, the SP, the currencies etc.
I may in fact be naive to believe that the Fed, Wall Street etc., can't reignite the spec frenzy across all asset classes, but that is the way I'm leaning.
Which would mean that X fundamentals will not necessarily result in the same corn price as they would have in a risk on environment.
10-13-2011 10:22 AM - edited 10-13-2011 10:32 AM
no emotional attachment...........we smash out a record 14B and 3.5B crop next year and its lights out for a few.........that is until demand catches up again............which will take about 94M acres of corn at trendline...........now you probably know by now my thoughts on our struggle to keep up with trendline, and the fact yields are flattening out............and you also probably know my thoughts that 94M acres of corn will be tough to get and it will mean that only about 72-73M acres of soya are available, thus requiring 49 bu/A national average to get a 3.5B crop..................
there are a whole lot of what IF's on the supply side that all have to happen to get 14B and 3.5B.................hedge your bets I guess.......
EDIT: as for a function of risk on equals $8 corn............I do agree to a point, however its impossible to really know the true and absolute supply and demand features until all non-party money is purged..........thus a two edge sword.........the biggest hurdle we have back to $8 corn is the fact we didn't run out of corn last summer, came close but didn't completely collapse the pipeline...........most remember that and when the extreme risk on trade happens it might be tempered..........that said, if demand keeps showing up like it has and flat out puts egg on the face of the USDA with its number we have a BETTER CHANCE of the pipeline sucking air next summer versus this summer...........which means if it does happen the hyper trade will take hold..........thats a walk off home run scenerio, but it could happen............
10-13-2011 10:24 AM
Nox, how do you read the meat markets? In live cattle, contract highs were almost hit yesterday in the summer months. It seems like when the grains, oil, etc. were all making corrections; meat markets continued their pace higher. Hogs in the summer months are right at contract highs. Feeder cattle less than a week ago were making new all time highs. I guess the real question is why didn't we see the similar corrective pattern in these markets while it seems nearly every other market was?
10-13-2011 11:13 AM
Besides all the acreage showdown, I am personally concerned with the levels of subsoil moisture. Good for all the guys that have gotten soaking rains, but this is the driest harvest I have ever seen (I am 48 years old). We may not evern dry a kernal of corn, hope we can get our LP money back. Acreage numbers aside, anyone else have concerns about expanding drought acres ?