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10-18-2010 11:40 AM
Ok, been away awhile doing other things but felt the need to chirp in here on ag prices.
Although I have totally disagreed with voracity of the sell off in the dollar, it has given more fuel to the long commodity trade. After the Feds comments on Friday, the world may begin to buy the fact. I can't agree with the Euro as the safe zone and we are one day away from that melting down again. Those dollar shorts are ignoring that fact as well as the European Central Bank.
While I like the idea of being long commodities, the recent rally may have a short term top. If the QE II does show up, what is the news that is going to keep this dollar under pressure. We have been fearing the Feds moves and when they finally do move is it time to buy the dollar? I suppose that is easy for me to say on a day we are down 6 cents but that is a relatively small move as of late.
Harvest went swimmingly well out by us but wreaked havoc on my allergies.
10-18-2010 01:04 PM
I think the dollar may have bottomed on Friday. Maybe get a retest this week. In general I think the market is putting too much emphasis on the power of QE 2. Commodities overall will struggle if dollar does rally, with some outperforming others.
10-19-2010 07:20 AM
I think you are right about Friday (easy to say after last night's action) but yesterday was weird. But that isn't unusual in these sorts of markets.
Pattern looks very much like the correction that began August 10th and resulted in a test of the 50 MA.
My worldview permits a further advance but one thing at a time.
10-19-2010 07:56 AM
If the dollar rally here it just might be the spark that the importers have been waiting for....... Why buy "Stuff" when the dollar is in free fall?....... If the dollar starts up...... Exports might get fired up again?...... p-oed
10-19-2010 08:16 AM
DXY just took out last week's high. This is going to get interesting. Euro looks to be topping out and it's about time. Did you happen to see the flash crash in the SPY ETF at the close yesterday? Dropped 10% in a matter of seconds. And this is the most heavily traded ETF in the world. And of course the mainstream media has no comment. They will blame a glitch or something else all to preserve the golden goose which is high frequency trading.
10-19-2010 08:40 AM
Prediction- a stock market carsh will be necessary here in order to convince us consumer bees that we need to overthrow 800 years of anglo-saxon property law so that the bankers will be saved.
10-19-2010 09:08 AM
Words of the year "Strategic Default". I love the argument against people doing this that they are being immoral and what not. They have the ability to make their current payments. All many of them want is a little help in terms of a refinance at a lower rate. Is that immoral or is it immoral for the bank to be able to borrow at 0% and expect to loan it out at 7%, or 10%, or whatever the pre housing crash rate was? Bottom line is the banks got bailed out. I'm not going to feel sorry for them no matter how many houses get shoved up their butts.
10-19-2010 01:29 PM
"sources close th the matter" say bondholders want Bof A to be forced to buy back $47 billion in mortgage bonds that they inherited from Countrywide,