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10-24-2012 07:42 AM
The macro picture has not materially improved.
We had some figures overnight which have given the market a boost but are only positive because they are less negative. Chinese PMI (flash) was contracting but not as much as expected. In Europe, Germany is continuing to contract. There really isn't a ton of good news around. What I think is even more interesting is that the equity markets made their post QE3 high two days after the event and we are now 2% under where we were before we embarked on the QE3 ship.
Not good. Not working.
We sit with baited breath waiting for the election.
10-24-2012 09:56 AM
Thank you for your morning report
Is there scuttle butt talk about the two out comes of the election?
If we really are short course grains, will that trump the election?
As the harvest is wrapping up and things are becoming known the grain markets look to me to have started a slow climb upwards. Just a little at a time kind of feeling their way in the dark (so to speak) Many have seen basis improvement to add to the movement.
Ethanol only seems to be shutting down because of lack of feedstuff to run them.
A total shut down of them would probably result in a rapid rise of at least a $1 a gal due to lack of refinery cap to pick up the 8 to 10% of gasoline it replaces in the market.
Is this just the lull before the storm of shortage and higher prices or the collapse of our economy and prices. Will bushels be the new currency? South America (Brazil) uses "bags".
10-24-2012 10:18 AM
I might as well be the first to give an election prediction here. I don't think it will be close. I see a silent majority that will give Romey a big win. Why? For the same reason Obama won big. Hope seems to come from the belief that if we change things, these problems will get fixed. So we change things again. Now if I was voting with my pocketbook, the last four years under Obama and the last year of Bush have been my best in almost all the last 20 years together.
I think the number one issue is the federal debt. I just don't know if there is a fix for it. Like I said, every President and member of Congress should have to so-sign for every dollar they borrow, and they couldn't get a dime of pension or insurance off the taxpayer if they increased the fed debt. Usually tying one's person money to something, changes things very quickly.
Don't see how interest rates go up....the government is dependent on low interest rates with 16 trillion in debt.
With Romney I do think you will see crude/gasoline prices drop. Obama loves green energy, it is where is big donors are. It remains to be seen how Romney affects ethanol. Ethanol's biggest ace in the hole is Iowa is the first in the nation caucus. It is all how you play the game.
I guess it becomes who you want to lead us off the cliff. Invest in parachutes. You will find out who your real friends are.
We are very fortunate in ag. It is one thing to angry masses. But hungry angry masses would be unthinkable. And since I am so often wrong, lets hope there really is an answer to 16 trillion and rising.