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09-17-2013 07:03 AM
Too many weak shorts to keep things down too long. Yesterday's trade was an odd one as most traders were watching the soaring stock market and the disaster unfold in Washington DC. Eerily quiet all day.
Crop conditions were not a shocker last night and did nothing to comfort the shorts hence the rally overnight.
Beans up 14, corn up 9 and wheat up 7.
Speaking to a customer of mine this morning with over 50 years in the business brought up the subject of how odd Dec corn is trading. It was making him nervous that it could be setting itself up for decent rally and didn't want to be caught short. Let's see if the years of experience pays off.
In other news the stock market took the Summers reverse very well as it was seen that he was a hawk and Yellen a dove. Equities are sideways this morning. The Taper Talk will heat up with the FED meeting this week. I say they should do nothing but the world is against me here. I wish that we could stand on our own two feet like everyone else but with the milestones the FED has set up and been very vocal about, it doesn't look like they should be expect a Taper Light - maybe $5-$10 billion. Oh well. Score another loss for common sense.
Oil still slipping a tad, down .30 cents to $106.29. Gold is up. Yes I said up. $1321.98 which is $9.00 higher.
Inflation numbers come out today (if you believe them) with CPI. What is in the Consumer Price Index you ask? Here you go....
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:
- FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
- HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
- APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
- TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
- MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
- RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
- EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
- OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).
09-17-2013 07:47 AM
Scott my thoughts have been for a while that with prices the way they are if there is going to be choice made by the farmer to go left at the end of the road to his bin site or right to the elevator it's going to take more $$ than we are now. $5 corn less basis will buy a lot after you have been at levels we have been. But when pricing at levels that are at, near or below COP the natural instinct will be to hold.