09-18-2013 06:46 AM
In the equity and fixed income world, today is the day. The world will be watching to see what the FED does to the 'Taper'. Expectations are for a move to trim the pump by $5-$15 billion a month. Currently the pump stands at $85 billion. A bigger trip than $15 billion will send equities and bonds lower. A small or no trip will send equities and bonds higher. It's anyone's game what happens anywhere in the expected range.
As for agriculturalist, Corn up 1, beans down 5 and wheat up 1. Fairly quiet overnight with light volumes. Stories doing the rounds about a smaller corn crop after reports of insurance claims being higher than expected after the recent rains. I think the story has some merits but corn is going to be a question of how big, not how small.
Beans still a little schizophrenic. The warmer/wetter weather may still have a positive affect.
We go into this FED decision with a 2.85% 10 year yield. Gold is below $1300 at $1299.03 down $11.61. Crude oil is a little higher at $105.94 up .52 cents. Equities are a tad higher as position squaring is the trade de jour.
Hang on to your hats.
09-18-2013 06:58 AM
Yes, today we`ll see Bernanke "Breaking Bad", he has to taper to keep confidence in the "recovery". A token $5-10 billion/mo won`t hurt anything. Janet Yellan can come in with her own QE, maybe a $125 billion/mo of T-Bill/motgage buying of her own.
09-18-2013 07:00 AM
In his never ending quest to make friends with Vlad Putin, President Obama may appoint Janet Yellen even after he found out her last name wasn't 'Yeltsin' and she wasn't a long lost relative of Boris.....
09-18-2013 07:10 AM
Here`s a story on the rigged poker hand that Obama lost, John Kerry was dealing Aces off the bottom of the deck and he still lost http://www.activistpost.com/2013/09/the-rigged-pok
09-18-2013 07:20 AM
09-18-2013 07:36 AM
I wouldn't say profession - I just have more time now to watch the markets. We have most of our money invested, didn't want money just sitting in the checking account - too easy to spend. So I've been spending extra time looking at where to put the farm income. There's no where safe that pays anything, as you all know. I did lock in a 13 month CD at our bank at 1.35% - a huge payout for such a short CD but it gives the economy more time to shake out before I decide where to put it. The rest, more or less is in the stock market. And obviously, todays QE report is a big deal. I think that it will be a non event in the end. We all know tht the QE was going to start to get removed from the economy, and it's time that it is. But we'll see what happens later.
09-18-2013 08:16 AM
The other thing that is weighing on me reference the bean market is that, once again, we have multiple bullish news items that are met with a yawn and more selling. We saw that all summer long. I thought that maybe we had broken out of that mode of operation, but it appears not yet. I'll stay short for a bit and bide my time. There will be a place to buy these markets - just not yet.