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Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 939
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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OptionEye.....Sept 18th

Good morning.

 

In the equity and fixed income world, today is the day. The world will be watching to see what the FED does to the 'Taper'. Expectations are for a move to trim the pump by $5-$15 billion a month. Currently the pump stands at $85 billion. A bigger trip than $15 billion will send equities and bonds lower. A small or no trip will send equities and bonds higher. It's anyone's game what happens anywhere in the expected range.

 

As for agriculturalist, Corn up 1, beans down 5 and wheat up 1. Fairly quiet overnight with light volumes. Stories doing the rounds about a smaller corn crop after reports of insurance claims being higher than expected after the recent rains. I think the story has some merits but corn is going to be a question of how big, not how small.

 

Beans still a little schizophrenic. The warmer/wetter weather may still have a positive affect.

 

We go into this FED decision with a 2.85% 10 year yield. Gold is below $1300 at $1299.03 down $11.61. Crude oil is a little higher at $105.94 up .52 cents. Equities are a tad higher as position squaring is the trade de jour.

 

Hang on to your hats.

Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,850
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

Yes, today we`ll see Bernanke "Breaking Bad", he has to taper to keep confidence in the "recovery".  A token $5-10 billion/mo won`t hurt anything.   Janet Yellan can come in with her own QE, maybe a $125 billion/mo of T-Bill/motgage buying of her own.

Senior Contributor
ShelladyOptions
Posts: 939
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

In his never ending quest to make friends with Vlad Putin, President Obama may appoint Janet Yellen even after he found out her last name wasn't 'Yeltsin' and she wasn't a long lost relative of Boris.....

Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,850
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

:smileyvery-happy:  

 

 

 

Here`s a story on the rigged poker hand that Obama lost, John Kerry was dealing Aces off the bottom of the deck and he still lost   http://www.activistpost.com/2013/09/the-rigged-poker-hand-that-obama-lost.html

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

I don't like the chart, and I don't like the feel of the bean market, and maybe commodities in general right now. I switched to shorting the bean market, just 1 contract. It's against everything I feel to be right. I just got tired of swimming up stream. I'm not saying short is the place to be in this market at all. And the last time I got out of my longs, the market took off higher. We'll see what happens today.

Jen
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,149
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

Jen,

Trading is your new profession?

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

I wouldn't say profession - I just have more time now to watch the markets.  We have most of our money invested, didn't want money just sitting in the checking account - too easy to spend.  So I've been spending extra time looking at where to put the farm income.  There's no where safe that pays anything, as you all know.  I did lock in a 13 month CD at our bank at 1.35% - a huge payout for such a short CD but it gives the economy more time to shake out before I decide where to put it.  The rest, more or less is in the stock market.  And obviously, todays QE report is a big deal.  I think that it will be a non event in the end.  We all know tht the QE was going to start to get removed from the economy, and it's time that it is.  But we'll see what happens later.

 

Jen

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

The other thing that is weighing on me reference the bean market is that, once again, we have multiple bullish news items that are met with a yawn and more selling.  We saw that all summer long.  I thought that maybe we had broken out of that mode of operation, but it appears not yet.  I'll stay short for a bit and bide my time.  There will be a place to buy these markets - just not yet.

 

Jen

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

So I get out of my longs again, and we go higher...it figures.

 

Jen

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,149
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: OptionEye.....Sept 18th

LET THEM RIDE.......