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01-15-2014 07:48 AM
A hot Argentina looks to get some rain that has corn off two days in a row. Currently down 2 cents. Volatility is getting hammered in corn options as speculators and investors seen no big threats to big moves on the near term horizon.
Beans are unchanged and wheat is down 2.
The 10 year is up as rates are rising, currently at 2.89%. Stocks had a rebound yesterday erasing a lot of the previous days losses. Today they are slightly higher going into the cash open.
Oil is up this morning trading at $93.06 up .47 cents. Gold is off a little after two up days trading at $1235.90 down $9.29. We are entering earnings season so a lot of the trade will be driven from a corporate point of view. Although yesterday's earnings reports were not really that good, the market rallied on some better than expected retail sales numbers. We had some inflation numbers out this morning from the government and again they show no signs of inflation heating up. Maybe, just maybe, QE is deflationary. Weird.
01-15-2014 09:42 AM
Here`s an interesting take on if QE is inflationary http://pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easi
Here`s interview with Cullen Roche, it starts at 15 minutes, but Erin♥ is some eye candy that makes the whole show worthwhile http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeHlelQWoEA
Roche has a different take than my usual Peter Schiff philosophy, but it is food for thought.
01-15-2014 12:53 PM
Using your first citation it's easy to distinguish who understands the basics of QE and who doesn't. Most don't and don't want to because it undermines what they think are major complaints about how the economy is being managed. Basically it's not being managed at all except that it does happen to be the Fed's mandate to try and ease unemployment. The Fed has little overall power under the current circumstances.
And yet there isn't much real understanding why the predicted inflationary meltdown hasn't happened and the economy shows little strength. For some the light will never go on. Yes, there is a switch but it doesn't work. How do we know that? Because the light hasn't come on. No reason to try the switch knowing that. And if it did come on the house would burn down. How do we know that? Because. So Congress stands in the dark hallway muttering about how things would be if THEY were the master electrician. But since they aren't they see little reason to do anything. So they don't.
01-15-2014 03:32 PM
David P. Goldman writes universal laws that appear in his new book,
How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too).
Spengler's Universal Law #1: A man or a nation at the brink of death
does not have a "rational self-interest."
Spengler's Universal Law #2: When the nations of the world see their
demise not as a distant prospect over the horizon, but as a foreseeable
outcome, they perish of despair.
Spengler's Universal Law #3: Contrary to what you may have heard from
the sociologists, the human mortality rate is still 100 percent.
Spengler's Universal Law #4: The history of the world is the history of
mankind's search for immortality.
Spengler's Universal Law #5: Humankind cannot bear mortality without the
hope of immortality.
Spengler's Universal Law #6 (courtesy of Warren Buffett): You don't know
who's naked until the tide goes out.
Spengler's Universal Law #7: Political models are like automobile
models: you can't have them unless you can pay for them.
Spengler's Universal Law #8: Wars are won by destroying the enemy's will
to fight. A nation is never really beaten until it sells its women.
Spengler's Universal Law #9: A country isn't beaten until it sells its
women, but it's damned when its women sell themselves.
Spengler's Universal Law #10: There's a world of difference between a
lunatic and a lunatic who has won the lottery.
Spengler's Universal Law #11: At all times and in all places, the men
and women of every culture deserve each other.
Spengler's Universal Law #12: Nothing is more dangerous than a
civilization that has only just discovered it is dying.
Spengler's Universal Law #13: Across epochs and culture, blood has flown
in inverse proportion to the hope of victory.
Spengler's Universal Law #14: Stick around long enough, and you turn
into a theme park.
Spengler's Universal Law #15: When we worship ourselves, eventually we
become the god that failed.
Spengler's Universal Law #16: Small civilizations perish for any number
of reasons, but great civilizations die only when they no longer want to
Spengler's Universal Law #17: If you stay in the same place and do the
same thing long enough, some empire eventually will overrun you.
Spengler's Universal Law #18: Maybe we would be better off if we never
had been born, but who has such luck? Not one in a thousand.
Spengler's Universal Law #19: Pagan faith, however powerful, turns into
Stygian nihilism when disappointed.
Spengler's Universal Law #20: Democracy only gives people the kind of
government they deserve.
Spengler's Universal Law #21: If you believe in yourself, you're
probably whoring after strange gods.
Spengler's Universal Law #22: Optimism is cowardice, at least when the
subject is Muslim democracy.
Spengler's Universal Law #23: The best thing you can do for zombie
cultures is, don't be one of them.