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04-15-2016 12:56 PM
More heavy rain is coming, a lot of Argentina's soybeans are ruined. And the case is only worsening, according to our market analyst contact in Argentina. Here is a full interview with Pablo Fraga, BLD located in Rosario.
Will this help U.S. soybean exports, at a time of the year that world buyers look towards South America for fresh soybeans?
04-15-2016 02:33 PM
Thanks. I couldn't believe the damage. It really makes you feel for those farmers. Great year until being tripped up at the very end. That is very disappointing feeling, I'm sure.
04-15-2016 03:34 PM
Thanks. I appreciate it. To put the Argentine losses into perspective, Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc. just sent a weekly statement that includes food for thought.
"There is a lot of talk this week about Argentina losing bushels due to excessive rains. Even if you lowered their crop by a few mmt the good crop out of Brazil and Paraguay more than offset the Argentinian loss, leaving South American production at all-time highs," Nelson states Friday.
He may be right. But, the damage is not done.
04-16-2016 05:22 AM
Nice job there Mike - See what happens when you get out of bed before noon : )))) Anyway - That was a first for me - never seen beans sprout in the pods like that . Thanks !
04-16-2016 06:15 AM
This week is a good illustration of why farmers should build grain bins and position
themselves so that they can sell when the market crys out that it wants their grain and not
simply be a price taker when forced to sell by a lender.
WIth a southern MN soybean basis of 80 cents under the board price, the local market
isnt crying out yet, and a farmer may have to use some additional tools to capture the rise
in prices and not lose out.
One thing about crops...they are there until they aren't. That is why there should always be
a futures premium built into contract sales.
04-16-2016 12:16 PM
Great interview and photographs from Pablo in Rosario. This article, Argentina Could Lose 3 Million Tons of Soybeans, has a map from the Rosario Grains Exchange showing accumulated precipitation in Argentina's central growing region between April 1-13. The average is between 2.7 and 10 inches with the darkest blue being between 10 and 15 inches.
We referenced the rainfall in this week's South America Crop Report and the trading paralysis in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, although Brazil's has more to do with the rising probability that Rousseff will be impeached. Brazil's nationally televised "impeachment party" is set for tomorrow (Sunday). Get your popcorn.
Thanks again for the interview and photos.