12-06-2012 02:30 PM
The figures given indicate much worse percentages if they are based on the eintire US winter wheat base, as SWW and SRW is also winter wheat. If that is the case the following means potential disaster for HRW. This will move global markets in the future.
By Carey Gillam
KANSAS CITY, Mo., Dec 6 (Reuters) - U.S. winter wheat farmers could abandon more than a quarter of the new wheat crop due to devastating weather, though decisions on abandonment will not be made until spring, experts said this week.
Historic drought, coupled with record warm weather and high winds sweeping across the Plains, have left the new crop in the worst conditions in decades. With no significant improvement soon, many farmers could give up on their wheat acres.
Abandonment levels could exceed 25 percent, said Mark Hodges, a wheat industry consultant and executive director of Plains Grains Inc, which represents producers from around the Plains. "The potential is there," he said.
"We are nowhere near a normal crop. But Mother Nature is very fickle," Hodges said. "Should we get some moisture, and I'm not saying the likelihood is high ... we could still produce some wheat. But the likelihood of significant moisture is not great before spring."
According to data compiled by U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey, since the 1950s there have been only two years in which U.S. winter wheat abandonment reached or exceeded a quarter of the crop. In the 1988-89 season abandonment was 25 percent, and in 2001/02 it was 29 percent.
Current U.S. winter wheat conditions are worse than those observed then at this point in the season, and the lowest on record for this time of year. Twenty-six percent of the new U.S. winter wheat crop was rated poor to very poor in late November by the USDA. .......... "
12-06-2012 03:38 PM
Here, the wheat conditions are not 'serius', it is 'dead'. I drove by a half section that was seeded to wheat, and all you can see, are a few sickly yellow sprouts, here in there in the bottoms, maybe 2 acres total. The rest either did not sprout, or died shortly after sprouting, before the field ever turned green. I do hear of a few fields of irrigated wheat that look OK so far, but those are not local, they are planted in other areas, where they fear irrigation water will be restricted. It looks like some irrigation districts may be restricting water use sometime in July, and those farmers are hoping to be done watering by then. My guess is if it rains, or they get more water, they may try double crop beans into it.
12-06-2012 08:00 PM
in central and western south dakota we really didn't have any wheat come up............so it's not dead........but best case is maybe 1/2 of a crop........if we have perfect weather this spring...........and that's assuming it get's a head on it
12-07-2012 12:28 PM
Half a crop is likely the best case nationally ( it might not make that either ).
We're lucky the usa grows a fair amount of irrigated wheat.
12-07-2012 02:22 PM
good post rightone,
Unfortunate, what we are going through for that to be true. But we would be flat on our back if we did not have our "drought insurance" in those irrigated acres. It's hard to eat paper insurance policies.
12-07-2012 08:07 PM
across the high plains(except Nebraska), as the wells deplete, two acres of corn has turned into one acre of summer crop and one of wheat. It is just a matter of being able to water in the off season. So there are a few more than one might think. I would say in Kansas maybe 25% to 50% of the wheat in the western 1/3. But the middle third of kansas produces more wheat than the western third by far. Central Okla and central ks is the big production and that is probably 90+% dry land. That's why I was commenting on those areas around thanksgiving.
Sorry also Palouser-----is in order.....
I let some emotion take my mind off subject on this one. My statement was based more on the overall effect on all crops this season----corn, beans, wheat, feed, and alfalfa...etc.
explanation for my mental laps------------
This is personal, I don't speak for anyone else,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Irrigation for the high plains made great financial sense and always has, creating a foundation of stability for most of our communities and economic development. It was mentally frustrating all those years producing a surplus just to have a cheap supply. Cheap grain actually pushed irrigation development more than high prices would have.---- occasionally production growth is called survival--------