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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Planting Progress

......or lack thereof.

if the 5-10 YEAR  average for 50% of the Corn planted date = May 5th and................. this year US has 20% or less planted by May 12th, what will this market need to do?

 

How many Corn acres will be planted?         ..................something tells me Moe, Larry, Curley and Shemp will NOT be having the last laugh.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Planting Progress

Cx. What happens if we lose 10% of expected corn acres? Does anyone here believe its possible? The 15 day looks terrible. I'm just trying to run through scenarios like you are. Or will we plant 97 mil acres up into June and beyond? It sure is getting interesting. The next month may be one for the record books. Ps 10% loss on corn acres we MAX out at 12.75 bbu.
Senior Contributor
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Planting Progress

Hey CX. Sort of off topic but do you use twitter at all? This site and others like it are terrific but I have found there is nothing better to follow the markets than that in real time. It's nice to follow traders and the guys with the boots on the ground. Interesting to note that last week the analysts had no concern about planting delays yet the farmers nailed the number today and the .40 move.
Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Planting Progress

[ Edited ]

sorry about solution, meant to click reply.

 

yes, getting interesting for sure....weather's been trending this way --going on 5 weeks now!

 

i believe the point here is mother nature is maintaining her PEAK-NESS, to ensure records are set for late planting, and thus historic times, and all that does and will imply.

 

i'm hearing DE JA VU-----------there just plain and simple NO history to go by, period. sorry, i already said period, didn't I?

 

you'd know more about last plant date crop ins will pay you for......figure MOST will plant until THAT DATE....and it's probably DIFFERENT in each state, ey?........can u edumacate on that, Buckley.

 

Old crop's run out of any hope of EXTRA- new -bushels coming on line, if u get my drift.......SO, the Houdini stooges might have start hoping they can POOP out about a Bil bu by SepSmiley Wink

 

don't use tweeter or twiller much, just real time data.

 

so if I say 19% on MAy 12, YOU????????????????

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Planting Progress

Cx. In IL final planting date is June 5 I believe. Then you lose 1% from your guarantee per day up to 25 days. But don't quote me on that. I agree on your old crop comment big time. If there is a gap to bridge late this summer it will be interesting to see how that's done and at what price. As for your may 12th guess I'd have to go with another 5% this week, which would be a huge mistake to stick corn into the ground in front of that much rain or SNOW, and IF the weather that's forecasted shows up, no more than 5% next week. 15% by may 12? Probably will be more, but that may call for 6$+ on Dec if it comes to fruition.
Senior Contributor
Posts: 315
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Planting Progress

CX1 History tells us that rallies, because of planting delays should be sold. I'd say we rally to $6.00 dec. With prices rallying the US farmer will plant corn.  94 million is my number which will give us plenty of corn if demand doesn't recover.

Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Planting Progress

[ Edited ]

Buckley,

 

15-19% planted maybe by 5/12----------and as you say, the Corn that is planted in said timeframe may be on shakey ground, so to speak........

 

Historic,

NDf, and thus no precedent. ie. doesn't matter what has been done before because when one accounts for all the variables going on, there has NOT been a time before--------NO analogue in MHO.

 

Further, if you've got the commodity hayday or heyday (video on floortalk) saying that JOE investor is either not investing or selling commodities and grains-----will only exacerbate matters. ie. this mkt has already got it's head bent over to it's knees-----just ram 'er in..

Senior Contributor
Posts: 315
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Planting Progress

In my farming career of 32 years I 've heard what you are saying before, this year is different we will never get it all planted and even if we do the yields will be way to low. 1993 is the only year I can remember when yields were severly affected by delayed planting for the whole US. Could it happen sure, but like I said before history says the odds are aganist it. It will make for good tradeing opps.

Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Planting Progress

Definite volatility. Point is - late planting is 1 variable piling on to many ALREADY at play here.

 

......and, it's looking to be late -

est, possibly ever, if current forecast remains intact or worsens.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 873
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Planting Progress

Like always, it depends on summer weather.  With a later-than-avg crop planting, summer weather simply becomes a bigger factor than "normal" -- fewer things can go wrong, or else the yield will suffer.