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04-29-2013 07:21 PM
......or lack thereof.
if the 5-10 YEAR average for 50% of the Corn planted date = May 5th and................. this year US has 20% or less planted by May 12th, what will this market need to do?
How many Corn acres will be planted? ..................something tells me Moe, Larry, Curley and Shemp will NOT be having the last laugh.
Solved! Go to Solution.
04-29-2013 07:44 PM
04-29-2013 07:58 PM
04-29-2013 08:24 PM - edited 04-29-2013 08:28 PM
sorry about solution, meant to click reply.
yes, getting interesting for sure....weather's been trending this way --going on 5 weeks now!
i believe the point here is mother nature is maintaining her PEAK-NESS, to ensure records are set for late planting, and thus historic times, and all that does and will imply.
i'm hearing DE JA VU-----------there just plain and simple NO history to go by, period. sorry, i already said period, didn't I?
you'd know more about last plant date crop ins will pay you for......figure MOST will plant until THAT DATE....and it's probably DIFFERENT in each state, ey?........can u edumacate on that, Buckley.
Old crop's run out of any hope of EXTRA- new -bushels coming on line, if u get my drift.......SO, the Houdini stooges might have start hoping they can POOP out about a Bil bu by Sep
don't use tweeter or twiller much, just real time data.
so if I say 19% on MAy 12, YOU????????????????
04-29-2013 08:36 PM
04-29-2013 08:41 PM
CX1 History tells us that rallies, because of planting delays should be sold. I'd say we rally to $6.00 dec. With prices rallying the US farmer will plant corn. 94 million is my number which will give us plenty of corn if demand doesn't recover.
04-29-2013 09:18 PM - edited 04-29-2013 09:26 PM
15-19% planted maybe by 5/12----------and as you say, the Corn that is planted in said timeframe may be on shakey ground, so to speak........
NDf, and thus no precedent. ie. doesn't matter what has been done before because when one accounts for all the variables going on, there has NOT been a time before--------NO analogue in MHO.
Further, if you've got the commodity hayday or heyday (video on floortalk) saying that JOE investor is either not investing or selling commodities and grains-----will only exacerbate matters. ie. this mkt has already got it's head bent over to it's knees-----just ram 'er in..
04-29-2013 10:23 PM
In my farming career of 32 years I 've heard what you are saying before, this year is different we will never get it all planted and even if we do the yields will be way to low. 1993 is the only year I can remember when yields were severly affected by delayed planting for the whole US. Could it happen sure, but like I said before history says the odds are aganist it. It will make for good tradeing opps.
04-29-2013 10:30 PM
Definite volatility. Point is - late planting is 1 variable piling on to many ALREADY at play here.
......and, it's looking to be late -
est, possibly ever, if current forecast remains intact or worsens.
04-29-2013 10:59 PM
Like always, it depends on summer weather. With a later-than-avg crop planting, summer weather simply becomes a bigger factor than "normal" -- fewer things can go wrong, or else the yield will suffer.