04-28-2013 07:42 PM
How do you have your chips placed? Usually planting delays are fools gold, but this year feels different. Hard to believe that we went from a drought to this. Old timers can tell you that we have been thru this before. No way in hell that we put any seed in the ground with this forecast. Oh yea, some guys are around here, but somebody has to be first. One of the BTOs on AGTalk said he shorted the market on Friday. Also said they are mudding the crop in. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. What say you??
04-28-2013 09:02 PM
04-28-2013 09:15 PM
I think that I can tell you what side you are on by the way that you post. It's painfully obvious. No biggie. As a trader, you have to be willing to switch sides at the drop of a hat. I have done pretty well the last 3 years. Right now, I am long and wrong. I usually don't play the long side, especially at these levels. Broke my own cardinal rule. Planting delays are fools gold.
I am not under water by much, but think I'm gonna have to swallow my pride and get out.
There are some very well respected posters on this site, and most of them play from the short side. Am I wrong??
HEY Wrestler, so a weeks worth of trade and you might not be wrong now.......is that what you are saying??????
I asked you what you thought you were wrong about last Monday and nobody was home.
Tell us what's got you thinking differently now?
04-28-2013 09:27 PM
SENE there are a few guys, "pushing the envelop" and planting I was out spraying pre on bean ground and I dug down and where I would be placing the seed I could make mud balls. Not bad on top 1 inch of soil and there are guys here that plant that shallow.
I suppose that is what they are doing this year.
The report tomorrow afternoon will show a planting progress but there is corn that has been in the ground almost a month now and nothing, there is 5 days of highs in the forty's for this coming week. Lows in the 30"s this isn't good. I know we have a long summer ahead of us,
The good news Is I don't' start calving officially until the 1st of May, hit that Just right this year!!!
If that guy went short Friday he was either too late or too early,,,,,,,,,,,cause new crop corn is under $5 here.
04-28-2013 09:30 PM
Planting delays, hot summer, really doesn't matter. In this upside down world, the more you grow the less you make. 200 bu. corn at $4 is 800 an acre(even at 5 it is 1000). Drop that to 150 bu corn at $7 and you have 1055 an acre(at 8 it is 1200). 150 bu corn is also less cost to harvest, transport, dry and store,,,even more net income(even more so if it party paid thru insurance). Its all good.
Cause, if we grow one bushel more than we might need---they drop the price three bucks. We will see who laughs last. So when the farmer loses, he can still win. Unless you presold for way toooooooo cheap. What a life.
Sure makes it easy not to get too worked up when we all sit because of the rain. Seems to be pretty widespread this spring.
Bring on the SA corn now, that way it will be out of stock by August.
Still time to raise that 200 bushel crop though. But, the clock is ticking.
04-28-2013 10:37 PM
Yes, the planting delays this year seem pretty wide spread. I do know of a BTO not far from me that was mudding in corn yesterday and apparently most of last night. We were very close to good field work conditions until the rain showed up again today. We got a half inch out of today's rain event. Some fields may be ready by Tuesday here. (Michigan, Indiana line)