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Veteran Contributor
Jed Stivers
Posts: 128
Registered: ‎07-10-2010
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Point of no return on wheat?

When is the point off no return on the wheat crop that's in trouble in the dry areas?

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,992
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

IMO, wait until it breaks dormancy.  Wheat is a darn resilient crop, if we can get some winter moisture and the crop doesn't winter kill, it has a fighting chance. That being said, we need to moisture ASAP, or winter kill will be a real threat.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

Its like a cat........so far its been dropped off the roof......shot twice with a be be gun.......and hit twice in the drive, once with the ranger and once with the family rig.........got about 4 lifes left......
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

No moisture improvement by May.........might as well put it in the radiator fan and fire things up......
Veteran Contributor
Jed Stivers
Posts: 128
Registered: ‎07-10-2010
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

May is a long way off, we will be cutting by early June.  SRW, it's doing good here now but still have a lot unpriced. 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

So why did you ask the question there hoss.........???????????

No improvement by May 1 its lights out.......anything before that can move the needle a bit.........remember there's a lot of wheat a tad bit behind because of moisture issues........and we have no idea if next spring will be early or late........

March is too soon to write it off........April borderline......hence by May.....
Veteran Contributor
Jed Stivers
Posts: 128
Registered: ‎07-10-2010
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

Ask the question because I didn't know it could go all the way till May. If someone had made me take a wild guess I would have thought by Feb with no snow or water it would be done. 8.50-9.00 is my target but if I thought we would see it take off soon I would raise that target. I have some at 8.50 and now it's at 8.42, will prol lock more in it it's above 8.50 anytime soon. 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,526
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

Jed,

 

We are in trouble in the midwest because we are two years dry and it is, once again, staying too warm.  The wheat is trying to grow and no soil moisture.  Tomorrow it's a 22 degree morning and tomorrow afternoon 68+ degrees.

I have a field planted north & south that has dried out enough that half the stand is gone-------- that one we knew last week.

If a field has big areas that were blue and going backwards this week and it stays 70 degrees ------we will know by Christmas.

 That covers about half the wheat in our area.  

If irrigated wheat stays as warm as last year all winter, it will probably freeze out in April because it grew too soon.

------------------------------- 

I find wheat the hardest of all crops to market because of these things.  I tend to try to ignore the price now, bin it and market later now that we have the bin space.  If we forward price we keep it at 25%---------------------- it scares me that much.   If I lived in the central Ks area or north central Ok area where it doesn't hail so much( or freeze, dry out, blow away, burn) maybe it would help--------------------- a little.

sw
Veteran Contributor
Jed Stivers
Posts: 128
Registered: ‎07-10-2010
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

Thanks SW, that's  the kind of info I'm looking for. We don't have any storage so I like to book a profit when I can. We mostly have to worry about a freeze here. 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,526
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Point of no return on wheat?

Jed

 

Funny part is from 1959 to about 1990 dry land wheat was consistant for us.  Summer fallow was 25-30 on on a bad year and 40-45+ in a decent year.  Since then we can't count on it.  Fall moisture is sometimes not there and winters have been dry.  We don't raise much wheat without winter snows

Now it's 10 bushel for 3 years then 50-60 for one.  I think its weather.  Some of the neighbors think its varieties.

sw