08-11-2011 09:04 AM
It looks like the majority is between $8 and $9. , and that is where i would put it at too. The question is how much corn have e-plants bought ahead going into new crop? With oil prices coming down , what corn price is profitable?
08-11-2011 09:08 AM
That's a great point, Greg. With oil "cheap" (I use that term very, very relatively!), does this spell big trouble for the ethanol folks? Any ethanol makers/investors out there have any thoughts on this? This may be something of a dumb question, but is there a "magic number" ratio out there for corn-to-oil prices that it takes to make it go?
08-11-2011 09:13 AM
I'll run and hide to avoid the lynch mob but it would seem to me that it may be in the national interest to make temporary modifications to the ethanol mandate. Final around 145? is impossible to tolerate on either a national or global basis.
However whoever does will go into the Jimmy Carter Embargo Hall of Shame. Well, live by the lobbyist, die by the lobbyist.
The fun thing will be watching all the republican candidates tap dancing around that issue ahead of the Iowa caucuses.
08-11-2011 09:27 AM
If I had to hazard a guess as to what becomes of ethanol, I'd put my money on the subsidies and mandates being lifted on corn based ethanol while pumping up subsidies and mandates on cellulose based ethanol. This day has been coming ever since the mandates were signed into law.
With regards to how much forward covereage end users have, I'd venture to guess very little in the cash market. With a cold, wet spring followed with the warmest July since 1955; I can't think many producers pulled the trigger on large cash sales. One of the local feedyards that typically takes in a signficant amount of high moisture corn said they're normally 75-80% contracted by now. However, this year they're under 50%.
08-11-2011 09:29 AM
I think it will also depend on how beleivable the projected yield numbers are from the other large corn growers like Russia, Europe, etc. From anecdotal accounts they may be on the high side in today's report.
08-11-2011 10:15 AM
I'm not so sure you can gauge the rationing of corn by price alone. It becomes more of a timing issue. If the price of corn lags around, going up 60-80 cents and then comes back down in a few weeks by 60-80 cents, you are giving everyone a chance at buying the corn and NO rationing takes place. (See this past year for an example.) If however, corn would shoot up by $2-3.00 in the next few days and stays there for a while (Say through next spring or summer) then and only then will real rationaing take place. Every time corn dips significantly, the corn has been put "on sale" and major buying occurs, limiting the rationing process.
08-11-2011 11:35 AM
+ / - 60 to 70 cents of 7 in alot of areas for most of 011.
Say $6.30 cash to 7.70 cash with thus a flat $7 long term middle.
Guess I do not see any econ event to change the afore.
Big believer in the demand ( other and outside global econ factors ) side of the equation having more bearance on price of things like corn than supposed supply of corn.
Perhaps it's thus outside factors that ration the price ( price totally determined by PRICE of available CURRENCIES ) of corn due to available currency supply etc., NOT supposed corn supply etc..