Reply
Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,904
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Possible production haircuts coming

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

 

Droughts for Iowa (I believe always) start in Georgia.  According to the coop newsletter, if the Great Lakes have less than 20% ice cover, then corn yields take at least a 5% hit.  So, figure 170bu/a  - 5% so that would be a 9 bushel hit. 161bpa X 86 million harvested aces would be a corn production of 13.8 billion bushel, don`t we use over 14 billion?  It`d chip into the 2.4 billion bu carryover anyway, I`ll leave it to the gurus what it would translate into prices. 

 

Also, since 1960 there`s only been 4 back to back yrs that corn was lower on Dec 31 than it was Jan 1 12 months earlier, there has never been 5 years. 

 

So, gentlemen and ladies start your engines!

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,778
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

BA....I. Need a jump
Advisor
Posts: 846
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

This projection suggests the chances of drought in the corn belt are lessened.

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,904
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

Well crap, Jim that looks like we won`t won`t skip a bushel, Lake of the Ozarks might be a foot lower.   Oh yippy skippy another 15+ billion bushel crop and $2 corn.

Advisor
Posts: 494
Registered: ‎08-31-2012
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

If you've been watching the weather this last month and/or the Masters this week you will have noticed there is no drought in Georgia!!!

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 12,633
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

 Is there any research done on the effect of moderate drought conditions as they effect corn that isn't under other stresses because of GM Travis and the plant health they afford? Asopposed to or in comparison to what would have happened when there were none?

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,904
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

Bruce, I think the drought tolerant stuff has mixed results, but some find a advantage.  I have come to realize that the only weather event that moves markets positively is a drought...well the heat, especially if it doesn`t cool down at night during pollination and filling.  + 80º nights are tough on yields.

 

Here`s a article from a few years ago.

http://www.cornandsoybeandigest.com/corn/farmers-test-drought-tolerant-corn-hybrids 

 

 

Farmers planted about 1 million acres of Agrisure Artesian hybrids in 2014, says Duane Martin, Syngenta marketing manager for Agrisure Artesian.

Mike Missman of Woden, Iowa, has planted Golden Harvest hybrid G01P52 Artesian brand for two years after first seeing it in test plots in 2012. Missman farms about 1,350 acres of corn and soybeans in north central Iowa on a combination of flat, heavy black soils and rolling hills with lighter, more variable soils.

“In the bad drought year of 2012, the Artesian hybrid was 20 bushels better,” Missman says. “In 2013 and 2014, we received adequate rain and it was still 10-20 bushels better.

agrisure artesian drought-tolerant corn ear
The Syngenta Agrisure Artesian ear on the right (compared to competitor ear on left, from Slater, MO in 2014) exhibits the robust kernel fill that results from the synchronization of pollen shed and silking during pollination, a hallmark characteristic of drought-tolerant hybrids. Photo: Syngenta

 

“When it doesn’t rain, Artesian hybrids conserve water and yield normally, “ Missman says. “When it does rain, Artesian hybrids will match or exceed the yields of comparable hybrids.”

Missman has observed that the Artesian hybrids “have more late-season stay-green, which results in better standability, higher test weights and better grain quality. The trait allows farmers to plant top hybrids in more variable soils and harvest greater and more consistent yields from more acres.”

“Agrisure Artesian genetics were available in about 30 hybrids from Syngenta in 2014,” says Syngenta’s Martin. “Demand was remarkably even across the entire Corn Belt. Corn growers could see the benefit of water optimization virtually everywhere, not just in the western Corn Belt.”

Not just a western problem

“Periodic drought is a factor for the whole Corn Belt, from Ohio to Colorado, not just the more arid western regions,” says Tom Hoegemeyer, professor of practice at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

“On many soils in many years, farmers would be well served to think of planting at least a part of their acres to drought-tolerant hybrids,” Hoegemeyer says. “The lower the water-holding capacity of your soil, the higher your vulnerability to heat and drought stress, so the greater you would benefit from planting water-optimizing seed corn.” 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,778
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

they now have something similar in wheat in Canada.........

 

speaking of wheat.  checked the weather roundup this morning.....some of the wheat in eastern Kansas might have got a

haircut last night.  Manhattan and Lawrence both showed 30 degrees or less.  Was concern in OKLA last night, wheat

heading....same in southern ks........

 

while we were in the "danger zone" in air temp, unknown if the ground heat sink kept it warm enough.

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

No way BA,   the sw droubt took a blow with a solid 4-5 inches of rain in the last week..... Too wet to work...... imagine that in the dust bowl.

 

Drought delayed by at least a couple of months and no need to prewater.  COP just came down a little.

 

 

The best chance we have is 16 billion bushels of demand.......... possible....

 

If usda can't figure out a way to hide it.

Advisor
Posts: 846
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Possible production haircuts coming

Here's a thread on drought tolerant corn from Crop Talk.  One school of thought is good corn handles anything better and there is no such thing as drought tolerant corn.  Others think there is.  I'm always a skeptic, but that's just me.  Some people plant Pioneer and expect it to stand up to wind.

 

http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Crop-Talk/Drought-Tolerant-Corn-Really/td-p/653940