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Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,215
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Post harvest rally starting?

Just stopped in to check the goings on and low and behold .... The corn yesterday had zero carry same price through

March 31. Now the basis has given us back 2 cents cash and several more in the deferred months.

 

The bean bid gained a nickel in my favor in basis too.

 

Harvest winding down for many and reality setting in for the buyers? We are just $5 away from $20, not bad at harvest time.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Contributor
NABFarmer
Posts: 106
Registered: ‎08-21-2010
0

Canadian canola production surprise for markets

Stats Canada report out today, 13.2 million tons of canola, a full 2 million tons less than expected a month ago, forecast demand now exceeds production.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Canadian canola production surprise for markets

[ Edited ]

i am betting basis in Chi-town is positive these days too.........didnt realize harvest was near for that area.........

 

http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_c2#/video/bestoftv/2012/10/03/dnt-chicago-millions-worth-of-pot-fou...

 

$7-10M in the area of two football fields............talk about high value........wonder what cash rents are.........lol.........

 

makes grinding out a few pennies seem worthless.........lol............

 

sorry.........off topic.........

 

yes I would say harvest pressure is about done.........think we carved the bottom, as discussed last week...........and yes I have also heard about the general bullishness of the OILSEED complex..........

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Canadian canola production surprise for markets

MT, if we get a pullback - buying @ 1452 sp

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

cx1..............

[ Edited ]

take a look if you will..........

 

have a few things going on here and not sure what I wanna do...........

 

three inverted H/S patterns, a primary, and two secondarys that could be viewed as multiple shoulder moves on the primary..........seems bullish.........

 

now take a look at the downtrend 36 to 44 channel...........seems bearish as we are closer to the top of that downtrend channel............

 

now take a look at a new uptrend pattern with a rising wedge thats been holding the last few days even after MA support broke and some other sector names reported earnings that missed really bad.........seems like a spring board........bullish........

 

fundamentally this thing is probably neutral, some wanna say bearish..........and they report later in the month which based on other sector names I would imagine will be bearish..........

 

so............scratching my head..........

 

seems ole MT does know a thing or two about charts and technicals...............just choose not to talk about em much.........

 

EDIT:  can not get the image any larger.........its a daily out 3 years of POT.........you should be able to at least see the lines decent........

 

 

 

Picture1.jpg

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: cx1..............

[ Edited ]

WOW, what in the world is POT? not the stuff you smoke, no?

 

the obvious is a slow death going on. no, somethings fixin to pop with THAT coil. overall (last year)is a slight edge to the downtrend.

 

Really, all u got NOW that's different (to only very slight edge) is last swing low is higher - yes slight hint of an uptrend trying to form.

 

even if u get to 40 i'd buy there with an initial target of 44 half. wait to see if it can fakeout/breakdown from wedge (steepest uptrendline).

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Post harvest rally starting?

Thanks....going to watch this 41.50 level......if she breaks there its likely down to 36 for a double bottom and channel support......44 is hard overhead until something makes er pop......

Thanks......
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Post harvest rally starting?

you're welcome.

i don't see 36.50 again. 39 should hold if it breaks down from 41.50

i'd buy 39-40, stop it below 36.50

it hasn't been making double anythings for a while. why would it now?

thx

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Post harvest rally starting?

Its one of those high beta over time stocks.......it can do weird things as you can see.....
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Post harvest rally starting?

And I do agree....anything under 40 is a good leg in.....